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The Mets head into Wrigley Field at 7-12 and in a real skid, having dropped eight straight entering Friday’s 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch. Chicago is 9-9, coming off back-to-back wins over Philadelphia, and this matchup sets up with Kodai Senga against Edward Cabrera in a game airing on WPIX and Marquee Sports Network.
This is a pretty important spot for both clubs, but for very different reasons. New York needs to stop the bleeding after getting swept by the Dodgers and scoring just 12 runs during the eight-game losing streak. The Cubs, on the other hand, finally look like their offense has found some rhythm after putting up 35 runs over the last four games and reaching double-digit hits in four straight.
The environment leans a little more hitter-friendly than a typical cold April Wrigley setup. Forecast conditions for Friday afternoon in Chicago are in the upper 70s with intermittent clouds, so this is not one of those early-season days where the weather automatically suppresses offense.
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New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor the latest MLB odds before locking anything in.
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +129 | +1.5 (-145) | O 10.5 (-105) |
| Chicago Cubs | -137 | -1.5 (+130) | U 10.5 (-113) |
New York Mets Betting Form
The Mets are in a brutal offensive stretch, and that is the first thing driving this handicap. During the eight-game losing streak, New York has been outscored 44-12, blanked three times, and is batting .175. It is not just one cold night or one bad series anymore. This lineup has gone quiet for more than a week, and the recent MLB previews page angle on New York is basically the same every day right now: can the bats give the pitching anything at all?
Senga is also coming in off his roughest outing of the season. He gave up a career-high seven runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Athletics last Saturday, and his overall line now sits at 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and 19 strikeouts. There is still bat-missing upside here, obviously, but the command and overall sharpness have not looked right. When the offense is this cold, it gets hard to back a starter who has not been able to protect the early innings.
The injury picture does not help. Juan Soto remains on the 10-day IL with a strained calf, Jorge Polanco is day-to-day, and the Mets are still missing multiple bullpen arms. Reuters also noted that Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., and Polanco have combined to hit just .212, which tells you how much of this slump has spread through the middle of the order.
Chicago Cubs Betting Form
Chicago is not exactly rolling yet in the standings, but the offensive trend is the opposite of New York’s. The Cubs are 9-9, they just won the final two games of the Phillies series, and they outscored Philadelphia 28-19 over those three games. They have scored 35 runs in their last four games, and after looking uneven early, the lineup suddenly has some thump and some depth. That is why this game is getting attention on the daily MLB picks board.
Cabrera has been a big part of that better feel. He enters 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 13 strikeouts, and while Reuters noted he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings against Pittsburgh last weekend, he still has the much cleaner current profile of these two starters. The Cubs are also getting real production from the bottom of the lineup, with Matt Shaw coming off a three-double game and Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Shaw all posting three hits Wednesday against the Phillies.
Chicago is not fully healthy either. ESPN lists Matthew Boyd on the 15-day IL, with Trent Thornton and Jaxon Wiggins also sidelined, so the pitching staff is not complete. Even so, this is still the steadier roster entering Friday because the offense is in better shape and the starter has been more reliable.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Matchup Breakdown
The cleanest gap in this game is current offensive form. New York is barely scoring, while Chicago has finally started stacking quality at-bats across the lineup. That makes this a difficult bounce-back spot for Senga, because even if his stuff is sharper than it was last week, he is facing a team that has at least 10 hits in four straight games and looks much more dangerous than the Cubs lineup we saw early in April. That is the first thing I would stress in any MLB betting guide breakdown of this matchup.
The starting-pitcher angle leans Chicago too. Senga has the stronger reputation, but Cabrera has the better current form, and in a one-game handicap that matters more. Senga’s last start was his worst of the year, while Cabrera at least kept Chicago in the game against Pittsburgh. I think the market is still giving Senga some credit for the name and the strikeout upside, but the recent evidence points more toward the Cubs.
There is also a game-script issue for the Mets. Because the offense has been so poor, New York is putting a lot of pressure on Senga to be nearly perfect. That is not a great formula on a warmer afternoon at Wrigley, especially against a lineup coming off 11 runs on Wednesday and a strong finish to the Phillies series. Chicago does not need to dominate this game to control it. It just needs to stay in the same offensive rhythm it has shown over the last four days.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Chicago on the moneyline. I make the Cubs a bit more expensive than the current market because they have the hotter bats, the steadier starter right now, and the cleaner overall game script. New York can absolutely get a better version of Senga and make this close, but asking the Mets to suddenly break an eight-game skid on the road while their offense is still missing Soto feels like a reach. The Cubs are the side.
The total is more complicated. The board is sitting in the 10.5 range, which already builds in the warmer weather and Senga’s recent volatility. There is an over case because the Cubs are swinging it well and the Mets bullpen is not fully intact, but New York’s offense has been so poor that I do not love forcing a total bet when the side is easier to explain. This is also the kind of matchup that often lands on premium MLB picks boards because the clearer edge is team-dependent, not total-dependent.
If the Mets are going to beat this number, it probably happens because Senga misses bats early and New York finally strings together a few innings with runners on base. That can happen. It just has not happened nearly enough lately. Chicago is in the better rhythm, and at this price, that is enough.
Best Bet: Cubs Moneyline -137.
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MLB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you are betting baseball every day, following top sports handicappers is a much better long-term move than chasing one-off opinions. MLB is too big of a board for that, and different cappers bring value in different markets depending on whether you prefer sides, totals, or first five innings.
The handicapper leaderboard also helps you compare consistency, volume, and long-term performance. Over a full baseball season, that usually matters a lot more than one hot pick on one afternoon.
