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Minnesota heads into Thursday’s series finale at Citi Field looking to grab the road series and get back above .500. The Twins are 12-12, while the Mets are 8-16 after finally snapping their 12-game losing streak with a 3-2 win on Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET in Queens, with Joe Ryan lined up for Minnesota and Christian Scott making his first major league start since 2024 for New York.
This is one of those games where the starting-pitching conversation really does drive the whole handicap. Ryan has been sharp, efficient, and hard to square up. Scott is interesting, no doubt, but he is still returning from Tommy John surgery and stepping into a bad spot against a Twins lineup that can take walks and hit the ball out of the yard. Weather should be mild, with first-pitch conditions around the upper 60s and only a light breeze, so Citi Field should play fairly neutral by April standards.
There is also a real lineup question hanging over the Mets. Francisco Lindor left Wednesday’s win with left calf tightness and was scheduled for an MRI on Thursday, so New York could be without one of its few bats that had actually started to heat up. Juan Soto returned Wednesday, which helps, but the Mets still come into this game with a thin margin for error offensively.
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Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor the latest MLB odds before locking anything in because this market opened a little cheaper on Minnesota and has held with the Twins as slight road favorites.
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | -118 | -1.5 (+145) | O 7.5 (-110) |
| New York Mets | -102 | +1.5 (-176) | U 7.5 (-110) |
Minnesota Twins Betting Form
Minnesota’s offense is not built on batting average right now, and that matters. The Twins are hitting just .227 as a team, but they are also carrying a .326 OBP, 28 home runs, and 104 walks through 24 games. That combination gives them a lot more scoring upside than a surface read might suggest. They can look quiet for a few innings, then suddenly cash in on one mistake and one free pass. That profile is part of why they keep showing up as an interesting side on the latest MLB picks board.
Ryan is the bigger reason I like Minnesota here. Through five starts, he owns a 3.29 ERA with 28 strikeouts, only six walks, and just one home run allowed in 27 1/3 innings. That is a strong fit against a Mets lineup that has struggled to create steady pressure all month. The Twins as a staff have also allowed only 14 home runs, which is one of the best marks in the league, so this is not a pitching group that tends to beat itself with loud contact.
There are still some injury-related depth issues around this club, especially with Pablo López and David Festa unavailable, but Royce Lewis did return from the injured list earlier in the series, which gives the lineup a little more balance. From a betting perspective, I think the cleanest Minnesota angles are moneyline and first five innings, because Ryan gives them the steadier baseline.
New York Mets Betting Form
The Mets finally got a win Wednesday, but one game does not erase how ugly the broader offensive profile has been. Through 24 games, New York is hitting .224 with a .288 OBP and a .334 slugging percentage, all near the bottom of the league. At home, it has been even rougher. The Mets are 3-7 in Queens, and against right-handed pitching at home they have hit just .202 with a .263 OBP and a .277 slugging percentage. That is not where you want to be heading into a matchup with Ryan. You can see the broader shape of this team on the daily MLB preview board, and it has been a lot of low-margin games and too little traffic on the bases.
Scott is the wild card. The Mets officially moved him into the rotation for this start, and it will be his first MLB appearance since July 2024 after his elbow injury and Tommy John surgery. The upside is real. He struck out 12 and walked only two over his last 10 1/3 minor league innings while sitting in the mid-90s. Still, this is almost certainly not a spot where New York wants him pushing deep into the game, which means workload and bullpen sequencing matter a lot more than usual.
If Lindor cannot go, the Mets lose even more stability at the top of the order. Soto being back helps, and Francisco Alvarez has at least shown some power, but there just are not many reliable bats in this lineup at the moment. That makes it hard to trust New York as a home underdog unless Scott is immediately excellent.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Matchup Breakdown
The clearest matchup edge is Ryan against this version of the Mets lineup. New York has already struggled badly to produce against right-handers at home, and Ryan’s command profile is exactly the kind that can keep that going. He is not giving away free baserunners, and he has done a very good job limiting home-run damage. That is the kind of setup a good MLB betting guide would push you to isolate before you even get distracted by the full-game noise.
On the other side, Minnesota has more swing-and-miss than I’d like, so I do not think this is automatically a game to chase Over just because Scott is making his first start back. The Twins do have real power and patience, but they also strike out enough to let a live arm settle in if the stuff is there early. That is why I slightly prefer the side over the total. Minnesota’s offensive edge is real, but it may show up more through run creation in spots than through a crooked-number game.
Bullpen usage is not a huge red flag for either club after Wednesday because both starters covered seven innings, but the Mets still feel more fragile late if Scott is capped early and Lindor is limited or out. Citi Field is also not a park that bails out weak contact very often, and with mild weather instead of a true summer carry spot, that matters a bit for a total sitting at 7.5.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Minnesota on the moneyline. The price is not huge, which helps. You are basically paying for the better starter, the more trustworthy offensive profile, and a matchup against a team that still has not shown it can hit right-handed pitching consistently at home. I think that is fair, and maybe even a little cheap if Lindor ends up sitting.
I also like the way this sets up for Minnesota early. Ryan has a real chance to control the first five innings if he gets ahead in counts, because the Mets have not done much damage in this split. Scott could look good for a turn or two through the order, but asking him to be efficient right away in his first MLB start back is a different thing. That is why first five Minnesota would make sense as an alternate angle, even if the full-game moneyline is the cleaner listed price.
The total is tougher for me. Under 7.5 has a case because of Ryan, Citi Field, and New York’s home splits versus righties. But Scott is still a pitcher with workload uncertainty, and Minnesota’s lineup has enough patience to create a messy middle inning if his pitch count climbs fast. So I’d rather not force the total when the side feels clearer.
Best Bet: Twins Moneyline -118.
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MLB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you like checking your own read against a wider board before betting, the top sports handicappers section is useful because you can compare different MLB styles instead of just tailing one capper blindly. Some lean heavily on pitching matchups, some are more lineup-and-price driven, and baseball usually rewards that kind of comparison.
The handicapper leaderboard is the part I’d look at most. It gives you transparent records, profit tracking, and a better feel for who is actually seeing the MLB market well over time, not just posting loud daily opinions. For a game like this, where the edge is more about price and pitcher fit than some flashy trend, that matters.
