NFL Predictions 
MLB Predictions 
NBA Predictions 
NHL Predictions 
Soccer Predictions 
Our number has this at close to even. At +110, take the Penguins.
The Philadelphia Flyers are -130 against the Pittsburgh Penguins at +110 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 45.7% chance for the Penguins. Our number gives them 51.2%. The gap is 5.5 points. The threshold for a bet is 5, so this one clears it by half a point.
How the number is built
Our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at home last season, meaning 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Penguins went 21-12-8 on the road and lost 20 of 41, which is also 48.8%. The average of two equal numbers is the number: 48.8% for the Flyers, 51.2% for the Penguins.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -130 and +110, it leaves the Flyers at 54.3%.
A new season starts here, and rosters change over a summer. Nothing on this page measures those changes. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Flyers and 41 road games for the Penguins.
The Flyers at home, the Penguins on the road
The Flyers were a better road team than home team. They went 23-14-4 away and 20-13-8 at home, and at home they scored 2.71 goals a game and allowed 2.76. The Penguins on the road scored 3.49 and allowed 3.05.
The two finished level on 98 points. The Flyers went 43-27-12 and outscored opponents by 0.09 goals a game; the Penguins went 41-25-16 and outscored them by 0.30. Both went to extra time often, the Flyers in 28 games and the Penguins in 23.
They met in the first round of the playoffs, and the Flyers won the series 4-2. They then lost 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The method uses the regular season only, so that series is not in the number.
The four regular-season meetings split 2-2. The Flyers won 3-2 in a shootout at home on 28 October and 4-3 in a shootout at Pittsburgh on 7 March. The Penguins won 5-1 at Philadelphia on 2 December and 6-3 at home on 16 January.
The price
The Flyers opened at -142 and the Penguins at +120. Read on 24 September 2026 at 01:10 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -130 and +110. Both moved toward the Penguins.
At the opening prices the market had the Flyers at 56.3%, a gap of 7.5 points. The move since has taken two points off the edge.
Pick: Penguins moneyline
Pittsburgh Penguins +110. Our number is 51.2% for the Penguins, the market’s 45.7%, a gap of 5.5 points against a 5-point threshold.
It rests on 82 games, 41 for each team, and the edge is half a point over the threshold.
What changes it
Almost any further move. With the book’s margin at today’s size, the Penguins at +108 still leave a 5.0-point gap and the bet stands. At +107 it is 4.8, and the call is a pass. Shorter than +108, leave it.
The other unknown is who plays. This page states nothing about either lineup on 30 September. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Penguins’ games went over 5.5 in 56 of 82. The Flyers’ went over in 44 of 82. The Penguins’ road games averaged 6.54 goals; the Flyers’ home games averaged 5.47, below the line.
The two over rates, 68.3% and 53.7%, average 61.0%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed. That is 6.7 points toward the over. Lean over 5.5, as a lean only; the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
The puck line has the Flyers -1.5 at +180 and the Penguins +1.5 at -218. The Flyers won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games. The Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Flyers -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time against 34.3% priced. Lean Penguins +1.5 at -218.
Penguins at Flyers, Wednesday 30 September, 7:30 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 01:10 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
