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Our number leans to the Canadiens by 4.9 points, a tenth short of a bet. No bet.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Montreal Canadiens are both -110 at DraftKings, which is a 50.0% chance each once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Canadiens 54.9%. The gap is 4.9 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Penguins went 20-13-8 at home, meaning 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average is 45.1% for the Penguins, 54.9% for the Canadiens.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Two prices of -110 carry equal margin, and removing it leaves 50.0% each.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Penguins and 41 road games for the Canadiens. The Canadiens play at Toronto on 29 September and the Penguins at Philadelphia on 30 September, and neither game is in these figures.
The Penguins at home, the Canadiens on the road
The Penguins at home scored 3.66 goals a game and allowed 3.49. The Canadiens on the road scored 3.56 and allowed 3.15. Both sides scored freely in these games, and the Canadiens allowed fewer.
The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 0.30 goals a game. Sixteen of their losses came after regulation, eight of them at home, and each one is a loss under this method. They lost their playoff series 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Canadiens finished 48-24-10 with 106 points, outscored opponents by 0.33 a game, and won the same number of games at home and on the road, 24 each. They beat the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Buffalo Sabres in the playoffs, both 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes.
The teams met three times in 2025-26, all in December. The Canadiens won 4-2 at Pittsburgh on 12 December and 4-0 at home on 21 December. The Penguins won 4-3 in a shootout at home the next night, 22 December. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.9 points against a 5-point threshold.
Both prices opened at -110 and had not moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Canadiens become a bet at +101 or longer, whatever the Penguins are priced at. The Penguins become a bet at +150 or longer.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 3 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Penguins’ games went over 6.5 in 47 of 82. The Canadiens’ went over in 44 of 82. The Penguins’ home games averaged 7.15 goals, the Canadiens’ road games 6.71.
The two over rates, 57.3% and 53.7%, average 55.5%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed, a gap of 9.8 points toward the over. Lean over 6.5 at +110. It stays a lean, because the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
The puck line has the Penguins -1.5 at +210 and the Canadiens +1.5 at -258. The Penguins won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games. The Canadiens lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Penguins -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 30.9% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Canadiens at Penguins, Saturday 3 October, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
