NHL
NHL · Tuesday 3 November
Stars vs Capitals Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Stars at Capitals. Our number has Washington at 51.2% and the price has them at 50.4%, a gap of 0.8 points against our threshold of 5.
The Washington Capitals are -112 and the Dallas Stars -108 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 50.4% for Washington and 49.6% for Dallas. The market calls this a coin flip with the home side slightly ahead. Our number calls it nearly the same coin flip.
How 51.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our figure and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Capitals went 25-11-5 at Capital One Arena, a 61.0% home win rate. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average of those two rates makes Washington 51.2% and Dallas 48.8%.
That puts Washington 0.8 points ahead of the price. The threshold is 5. On this method the moneyline is priced about right.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so that the pair adds up to more than 100%. At -112 and -108 the two prices come to 104.8%. With the margin taken out, Washington is 50.4% and Dallas 49.6%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and the two teams have started almost level. Washington is 8-5-0, 6-3-0 at home, and lost 5-1 to the Minnesota Wild on Sunday, 1 November. Dallas is 8-5-1, 3-1-1 on the road, and beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-1 on Saturday, 31 October. Logan Thompson has played nine of Washington’s games and Charlie Lindgren four. Jake Oettinger has played 11 for Dallas and Casey DeSmith three.
Washington at home, Dallas on the road
These are the two halves our number uses. The Capitals at home scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.66, a surplus of 0.73. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78, also a surplus of 0.73. Each half is the stronger version of its team, and they cancel.
The halves the method leaves out favour Dallas. The Stars at home went 26-11-4, a 63.4% win rate, scoring 3.29 and allowing 2.73. The Capitals on the road went 18-19-4, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.02 and allowing 3.29. None of that is in our number, because this game is in Washington.
The season around it
Over the full season Dallas was the better team. The Stars went 50-20-12 with 112 points and a goal difference of +53, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Minnesota Wild. The Capitals went 43-30-9 with 95 points and a goal difference of +19, and missed the playoffs.
Close games were where Dallas earned much of that gap. The Stars went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past 60 minutes. Washington went 13-8-9 in one-goal games and won 6 of 15 past regulation. The Capitals won by two goals or more 30 times in 82 games and lost by two or more 22 times; the Stars won by two or more 22 times and lost by two or more 14 times.
Dallas won both meetings in 2025-26. The 1-0 win on 28 October 2025 was in Dallas, so it sits in neither half of our number. The 4-1 win on 7 January 2026 was in Washington, so it is inside both halves: one of the Capitals’ 11 home regulation losses and one of the Stars’ 24 road wins.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.8 points toward Washington, against a threshold of 5. The method gives no edge at these prices, and a pass is the correct output.
The line read Capitals -112 and Stars -108 on 2 November 2026 at 17:46 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -112 and -108, so the market’s 50.4% for Washington has not moved.
What kills the bet
Here, what would create one. Against the Stars at -108, the Capitals become a bet at +124 or longer. Against the Capitals at -112, the Stars become a bet at +143 or longer. Both prices sit far from where this game is trading.
ESPN’s injury list has Vincent Desharnais, Rasmus Sandin and Patrick Thomas on injured reserve for Washington. Dallas lists Kyle Capobianco, Oskar Back, Matt Duchene and Luke Krys on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -120 and under +100. The Capitals’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82 and the Stars’ games in 44 of 82, 53.7% each. Washington’s home games averaged 6.05 goals and Dallas’s road games 6.29.
Our number for the over is 53.7%. With the margin removed, the over is priced at 52.2% and the under at 47.8%, so our number leans to the over by 1.5 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Washington is -1.5 at +205 and Dallas +1.5 at -250, which is 31.5% and 68.5% without the margin. The Capitals won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games, and the Stars lost by two or more in 14 of 82. On our averaging, Capitals -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time against 31.5% priced, a gap of 4.6 points toward Stars +1.5. That is under the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Stars at Capitals, Tuesday 3 November, 7:00 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2 November 2026, 17:46 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026, 17:45 UTC.