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Dallas Stars

NHLNext: at Penguins, Sat5 predictions

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NHLSat 10 Oct
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
Our call

Our number has the Stars at 54.9%. They are a bet at +101 or longer, the Penguins at +150 or longer.

Stars at Penguins · 10 OctOur number has the Stars at 54.9%.
Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionStars at Penguins prediction

The Stars won 50 of 82 games in 2025-26, yet the puck line went their way just 32 times. For a Dallas Stars prediction the price matters more than the pick: as underdogs, just 18 times, they covered 15.

Fifty wins, 32 covers

Dallas went 50-32. Only two NHL teams finished with a better record, and Buffalo and Tampa Bay finished level. On the puck line the picture turns over: 32 covers in 82, with two teams below them and New Jersey on the same number. At home it was 12 covers in 41: one team was lower, and New Jersey was level again.

The Stars 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-10-09 at Winnipeg Jets 5-42025-10-11 at Colorado Avalanche 5-42025-10-14 v Minnesota Wild 5-22025-10-16 v Vancouver Canucks 3-52025-10-18 at St. Louis Blues 1-32025-10-21 v Columbus Blue Jackets 1-52025-10-23 v Los Angeles Kings 2-32025-10-25 v Carolina Hurricanes 3-22025-10-26 at Nashville Predators 3-22025-10-28 v Washington Capitals 1-02025-10-30 at Tampa Bay Lightning 1-22025-11-01 at Florida Panthers 3-42025-11-04 v Edmonton Oilers 4-32025-11-06 v Anaheim Ducks 5-72025-11-08 at Nashville Predators 5-42025-11-09 v Seattle Kraken 2-12025-11-11 at Ottawa Senators 3-22025-11-13 at Montreal Canadiens 7-02025-11-15 v Philadelphia Flyers 5-12025-11-18 v New York Islanders 2-32025-11-20 at Vancouver Canucks 4-22025-11-22 at Calgary Flames 2-32025-11-25 at Edmonton Oilers 8-32025-11-26 at Seattle Kraken 3-22025-11-28 v Utah Mammoth 4-32025-11-30 v Ottawa Senators 6-12025-12-02 at New York Rangers 2-32025-12-03 at New Jersey Devils 3-02025-12-05 v San Jose Sharks 4-12025-12-07 v Pittsburgh Penguins 3-22025-12-09 at Winnipeg Jets 4-32025-12-11 at Minnesota Wild 2-52025-12-13 v Florida Panthers 0-42025-12-15 v Los Angeles Kings 4-12025-12-18 at San Jose Sharks 5-32025-12-19 at Anaheim Ducks 8-32025-12-21 v Toronto Maple Leafs 5-12025-12-23 at Detroit Red Wings 3-42025-12-27 v Chicago Blackhawks 3-42025-12-31 v Buffalo Sabres 1-42026-01-01 at Chicago Blackhawks 3-42026-01-04 v Montreal Canadiens 3-42026-01-06 at Carolina Hurricanes 3-62026-01-07 at Washington Capitals 4-12026-01-10 at San Jose Sharks 4-52026-01-12 at Los Angeles Kings 3-12026-01-13 at Anaheim Ducks 1-32026-01-15 at Utah Mammoth 1-22026-01-18 v Tampa Bay Lightning 1-42026-01-20 v Boston Bruins 6-22026-01-22 at Columbus Blue Jackets 0-12026-01-23 v St. Louis Blues 3-22026-01-27 at St. Louis Blues 4-32026-01-29 at Vegas Golden Knights 5-42026-01-31 at Utah Mammoth 3-22026-02-02 v Winnipeg Jets 4-32026-02-04 v St. Louis Blues 5-42026-02-25 v Seattle Kraken 4-12026-02-28 v Nashville Predators 3-22026-03-02 at Vancouver Canucks 6-12026-03-03 at Calgary Flames 6-12026-03-06 v Colorado Avalanche 4-52026-03-08 v Chicago Blackhawks 4-32026-03-10 v Vegas Golden Knights 2-12026-03-12 v Edmonton Oilers 7-22026-03-14 v Detroit Red Wings 3-22026-03-16 v Utah Mammoth 3-62026-03-18 at Colorado Avalanche 2-12026-03-21 at Minnesota Wild 1-22026-03-22 v Vegas Golden Knights 2-32026-03-24 v New Jersey Devils 4-62026-03-26 at New York Islanders 1-22026-03-28 at Pittsburgh Penguins 6-32026-03-29 at Philadelphia Flyers 1-22026-03-31 at Boston Bruins 3-62026-04-02 v Winnipeg Jets 3-02026-04-04 v Colorado Avalanche 0-22026-04-07 v Calgary Flames 4-32026-04-09 v Minnesota Wild 5-42026-04-11 v New York Rangers 2-02026-04-13 at Toronto Maple Leafs 6-52026-04-15 at Buffalo Sabres 4-3Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margin0
50-32 in 82 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Where the margin went

Here is the tell. Twenty-eight of the 50 wins came by a single goal, against 18 one-goal defeats, and 24 games went past regulation, 14 in overtime and 10 in a shootout. As favorites, 64 times, they won 39 and covered 17. Backing them to win in those 64 games lost 0.35 units.

The Stars at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (41)won 26 (63.4%)Away (41)won 24 (58.5%)Favorite (64)won 39 (60.9%)Underdog (18)won 11 (61.1%)50%
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The rare underdog

The market made Dallas the underdog in 18 games; only four teams were underdogs less often. Those were their best nights: 11-7, 4.40 units and 15 covers on the +1.5. The two longest prices they beat both came at Colorado, 5-4 at +125 and 2-1 at +120, both settled in a shootout. Over the whole season a unit on every game made 4.04; eight teams made more.

One unit on the Stars to win, every game0+2+4+6+4.04 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 82 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

November and January

November built the season: 11-4 and 4.60 units. January took almost half of it back, 7-8 and 2.17 down, with six covers in 15.

Winnipeg, Edmonton and the no-cover pair

Winnipeg lost all four meetings, worth 2.91 units, and Edmonton all three, 2.71. St. Louis and Nashville are the warning: Dallas went 6-1 against them and did not cover once. Chicago won two of three, one of them 4-3 in a shootout in Dallas with the Stars at -360, the shortest price they lost at all season.

The total gave nothing: 41 unders, 40 overs, one game with no total recorded. Dallas allowed 2.76 goals a game, and only one NHL team allowed fewer.

Questions and answers

How does a 50-win Stars team fail the puck line?

By winning close: 28 of the 50 wins in 2025-26 came by one goal, and they covered 32 times in 82, 12 in 41 at home.

Were the Stars worth backing at plus money?

Yes, the few times it was offered: 11-7 in 18 games as underdogs, 4.40 units up, with 15 covers on the +1.5.

Which team did the Stars beat most often?

Winnipeg: all four 2025-26 meetings, worth 2.91 units.

Past games

  1. Stars at Sabres · 8 OctNo bet
  2. Sharks at Stars · 5 OctThe Stars won 26 of 41 at home and the Sharks lost 23 of 41 on the road.
  3. Stars at Predators · 3 OctThe Stars won 24 of 41 on the road last season.
  4. Blues at Stars · 2 OctThe Stars are the right favourite, and -205 is about the right price.

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