Stars vs Blue Jackets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Stars or the Blue Jackets. Our number sits 0.6 points from the price, and we need 5.

The Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets is priced Stars -130 and Blue Jackets +110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 54.3% for Dallas and 45.7% for Columbus. Our number has Dallas at 54.9% and Columbus at 45.1%. The price and the method agree to within a point.

How 45.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

The Blue Jackets went 20-13-8 at Nationwide Arena, a 48.8% home win rate. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Columbus is 45.1%, Dallas 54.9%. That is 0.6 points toward the Stars against a threshold of 5.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -130 and +110 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Stars are 54.3% and the Blue Jackets 45.7%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. Columbus is 6-7-0, 5-3-0 at home, and beat Colorado 7-2 at home on Tuesday 3 November. Jet Greaves has played eight of their games and Cam Talbot seven. Dallas is 9-5-1, 4-1-1 on the road, and won 6-5 in Washington the same night. Jake Oettinger has played 12 of their games and Casey DeSmith three.

Columbus at home, Dallas on the road

The Blue Jackets at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.07, a surplus of 0.22. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78, a surplus of 0.73. On goals, the Dallas half is the stronger one.

The halves the method leaves out: Dallas at home went 26-11-4, a 63.4% win rate, scoring 3.29 and allowing 2.73. Columbus on the road went 20-17-4, also 48.8%, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.10. The Blue Jackets won at the same rate in both buildings. Only the goal surplus changed with the venue.

Dallas was the better team over 82 games. The Stars went 50-20-12 with 112 points in the Western Conference and outscored opponents by 53, then won two games and lost four in a playoff series against the Minnesota Wild. Columbus went 40-30-12 with 92 points in the Eastern Conference, finished with a goal difference of 0, and missed the playoffs.

The Stars went 28-6-12 in one-goal games. Columbus went 18-13-12. Each team played 24 games past 60 minutes and won 12 of them. Both won by two goals or more 22 times; the Blue Jackets lost by that margin 17 times, the Stars 14.

Columbus won both meetings in 2025-26. The first, 5-1 in Dallas on Tuesday 21 October 2025, is in neither half of our number. The second, 1-0 in Columbus on Thursday 22 January 2026, is inside both halves. Two games is a sample that proves nothing.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.6 points toward the Stars, against a threshold of 5. At -130 the market has Dallas about where our method does.

The line read Stars -130 and Blue Jackets +110 on 4 November 2026 at 16:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A longer price on either side. The Stars become a bet at +101 or longer whatever Columbus is priced at; against Columbus at +110, they become a bet at +111 or longer. They are -130.

The Blue Jackets become a bet at +150 or longer whatever Dallas is priced at, and at +164 or longer against Dallas at -130. They are +110.

ESPN’s injury list has Miro Heiskanen day-to-day with an upper-body injury for Dallas. Kyle Capobianco, Oskar Back, Matt Duchene and Luke Krys are on injured reserve. Columbus has no one on the list, and no goalie is listed for either team. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -122 and under +102. The Blue Jackets’ games went over 5.5 in 48 of 82, a 58.5% rate. The Stars’ went over in 44 of 82, 53.7%. Columbus’s home games averaged 6.36 goals and Dallas’s road games 6.29.

Our number puts the over at 56.1%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.6% and the under at 47.4%. That is a 3.5-point lean to the over, short of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at +195 and Columbus +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. The Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games and the Blue Jackets lost by two or more in 17 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 23.8% of the time against 32.5% priced, a gap of 8.7 points toward Blue Jackets +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that gap is a lean, not a bet. No bet on this game.

Stars at Blue Jackets, Thursday 5 November, 7:00 PM ET, Nationwide Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC.