Flyers vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Flyers on the moneyline. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number is run on the Rangers‘ home games without him, and it makes Philadelphia a 64.7% winner against the price’s 41.7%.

The New York Rangers are -155 and the Philadelphia Flyers +130 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 58.3% for New York and 41.7% for Philadelphia. The price makes the home team a clear favourite. Our number makes the visitors one, by 23.0 points.

How 64.7% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -155 and +130 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Rangers are 58.3% and the Flyers 41.7%.

Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, entry dated 11 October 2026, return date given as 15 September 2027; read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of New York’s 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick’s 25, Spencer Martin’s 6 and Dylan Garand’s 3. He played 26 of the 41 home games.

In the 15 home games he did not play, the Rangers went 4-9-2, a 26.67% home win rate. Our minimum for this re-run is 10 games at that venue, and 15 clears it.

The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road, a 43.9% road loss rate over 41 games. Average 26.67% with 43.9% and the Rangers are 35.3%, the Flyers 64.7%. That is 23.0 points better for Philadelphia than the price.

The full home season points to the same side. The Rangers went 14-20-7 at Madison Square Garden, a 34.1% home win rate. On that number New York is 39.0%, and the gap is 19.3 points toward the Flyers. Removing Shesterkin lowers New York’s number further and widens the gap.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and so far it runs the other way. The Rangers are 8-7-1 and 7-2-0 at home, and they beat St. Louis 3-1 on Tuesday. Garand has played 12 of their games, Shesterkin 5 and James Reimer 1. The Flyers are 4-9-4 and 1-5-1 on the road, and they lost 4-2 to Minnesota on Tuesday. Dan Vladar has played 9 games in goal and Joseph Woll 8.

New York at home, Philadelphia on the road

The Rangers at home scored 2.59 a game and allowed 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Flyers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.17, a surplus of 0.22. Each team’s half of the method runs in Philadelphia’s direction.

The method leaves two halves out. New York on the road went 19-19-2, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 3.12. Philadelphia at home went 20-13-8, 48.8%, scoring 2.71 and allowing 2.76. The Rangers were a better team away from their own arena, and none of that is in our number.

Over the full season the Flyers went 43-27-12 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 7. In the playoffs they beat Pittsburgh 4-2 and were swept 4-0 by Carolina. The Rangers went 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 12, and missed the playoffs.

Philadelphia did well in close games. The Flyers went 17-5-12 in one-goal games and won 16 of the 28 that went past regulation. New York went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of 18 past 60 minutes. The Rangers lost by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games.

New York won three of the four meetings in 2025-26. At Madison Square Garden, the Rangers won 5-4 in a shootout on 20 December and the Flyers won 3-2 in overtime on 26 February. Both of those games are in Philadelphia’s 43.9% road loss rate, which our number uses. The two games in Philadelphia, Rangers wins of 6-3 on 17 January and 6-2 on 9 March, are in neither half.

Pick: Flyers +130

Bet the Flyers on the moneyline at +130. On the Rangers’ home games without Shesterkin, the gap is 23.0 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5. On the full home season it is 19.3.

The line read Flyers +130 and Rangers -155 on 4 November 2026 at 16:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +140 and -166. Since the open, the market gives the Flyers 1.7 points more: 41.7% now against 40.0% then.

What kills the bet

A much shorter Philadelphia price. At -148 or longer the Flyers are a bet whatever New York is priced at. Against the Rangers at -155, they stay a bet down to -923.

For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to be +230 or longer. They are -155.

The rest is on the ice. New York’s 7-2-0 home start and Philadelphia’s 1-5-1 road start are both outside our number. ESPN’s injury list also has a second Rangers goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, on injured reserve with a foot injury, along with Joe Veleno and Aidan Thompson, while Sean Durzi is day-to-day. The Flyers list Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +120 and under -142. The Rangers’ games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, the Flyers’ in 34 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.61 goals and Philadelphia’s road games 6.56.

That is 39.0% and 41.5%, which gives our over a 40.2% chance. With the margin removed the over is priced at 43.7% and the under at 56.3%. Our number leans to the under by 3.4 points, short of the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, New York is -1.5 at +145 and Philadelphia +1.5 at -175, which is 39.1% and 60.9% without the margin. Last season the Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Flyers lost by two or more in 22 of 82. On our number Rangers -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time, a gap of 11.6 points toward Flyers +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. The bet on this game is the Flyers at +130.

Flyers at Rangers, Thursday 5 November, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Rangers goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC.