Ducks vs Oilers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the Ducks on the moneyline. Our number makes Edmonton a 53.7% home winner. The price says 63.7%.

The Anaheim Ducks are +164 and the Edmonton Oilers -198 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 36.3% for Anaheim and 63.7% for Edmonton. Our number has the Oilers at 53.7% and the Ducks at 46.3%. The 10.0-point gap toward Anaheim is the whole argument.

How 53.7% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

The Oilers went 22-14-5 at Rogers Place, a 53.7% home win rate. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate. The two rates match, so their average is also 53.7% for Edmonton, leaving 46.3% for Anaheim. Against the price, that is 10.0 points better for the Ducks.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so that the pair adds up to more than 100%. At +164 and -198 the two prices add up to 104.3%. With the margin taken out, the Ducks are 36.3% and the Oilers 63.7%.

Every input comes from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and it has started far better for Edmonton. The Oilers are 11-2-3, 4-2-2 at home. They lost 4-3 in a shootout at New Jersey on Tuesday, 3 November. Tristan Jarry has played eight of their games, Devon Levi seven and Matt Tomkins one. The Ducks are 7-7-1, 5-3-0 on the road, and won 5-4 at Vancouver on the same Tuesday. Lukas Dostal has played nine of their games, Ville Husso five and Laurent Brossoit two.

Edmonton at home, Anaheim on the road

At home last season the Oilers scored 3.49 a game and allowed 3.41, a surplus of 0.08. On the road the Ducks scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.42. By goals, Anaheim was a poor road team. By results, it lost 53.7% of road games, and the Oilers won only 53.7% at home.

The method leaves two halves out. Edmonton on the road went 19-16-6, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.15. Anaheim at home went 24-13-4, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 3.49. Neither half is in our number.

The season around it

Over the full 2025-26 regular season the Oilers went 41-30-11 with 93 points and a goal difference of +13. The Ducks went 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of -15. In the playoffs Anaheim beat Edmonton 4-2 in a series, then lost 4-2 to Vegas.

Anaheim’s record outran its goals because it won close games. The Ducks went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of the 23 that went past regulation. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of 20 past 60 minutes. The Oilers won by two goals or more 28 times and lost by two or more 19 times. The Ducks won by two or more 19 times and lost by two or more 27 times.

The teams met three times in the regular season. Edmonton won 7-4 at home on 26 January 2026 and 4-2 at home on 28 March. Those two games are inside both halves of our number. Anaheim won 6-5 at home on 25 February, and that game is in neither half.

Pick: Ducks +164

Bet the Ducks on the moneyline at +164. The gap is 10.0 points toward Anaheim, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Ducks +164 and Oilers -198 on 4 November 2026 at 16:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +164 and -198, so the market has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Anaheim price. At +142 or longer the Ducks are a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at. Against the Oilers at -198, they stay a bet down to +114.

For the Oilers to become the bet, they would need to be +178 or longer against the current Ducks price, or +106 or longer whatever Anaheim is priced at. They are -198.

The rest is on the ice. Edmonton’s 11-2-3 start is not in our number. ESPN’s injury list has Isaac Howard out with a knee injury for Edmonton, and Zach Hyman, Devon Levi, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie on injured reserve. Levi is a goalie who has played seven games this season. Our method was not re-run for his absence, so his absence does not change the call. Anaheim lists A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore and Ryan Poehling on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, with the over at -130 and the under at +110. The Oilers’ games went over 6.5 in 48 of 82, a 58.5% rate. The Ducks’ games went over in 49 of 82, a 59.8% rate. Edmonton’s home games averaged 6.9 goals, and Anaheim’s road games averaged 6.66.

Averaged, those two rates give 59.1% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%. That leaves a lean of 4.9 points to the over, just short of the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Edmonton is -1.5 at +120 and Anaheim +1.5 at -142, or 43.7% and 56.3% without the margin. Our number has Oilers -1.5 landing 33.5% of the time, a gap of 10.1 points toward Ducks +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Ducks at +164.

Ducks at Oilers, Thursday 5 November, 8:00 PM ET, Rogers Place. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026, 16:32 UTC.