NHL
NHL · Saturday 7 November
Sharks vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Sharks on the moneyline. Our number makes San Jose a 40.2% winner in Dallas, and the price says 28.6%.
The San Jose Sharks are +235 and the Dallas Stars -290 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 71.4% for Dallas and 28.6% for San Jose. Our Sharks vs Stars prediction puts the Stars at 59.8% and the Sharks at 40.2%, a gap of 11.6 points toward the visitors.
How 59.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Sharks went 18-21-2 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate. Average the two and Dallas is 59.8%, San Jose 40.2%. That is 11.6 points better for the Sharks than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +235 and -290 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Stars are 71.4% and the Sharks 28.6%.
The market and our number agree on the favourite. They disagree on the size. A 71.4% price asks Dallas to win at home more often than it did in 2025-26, against an opponent that lost less than 60% of its road games.
No absence re-runs the method. Jake Oettinger has played 12 of Dallas’s games this season and Yaroslav Askarov 11 of San Jose’s, and neither is on the injury list.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Stars are 9-5-2, 5-4-0 at home, and lost 2-1 in a shootout at Columbus on Thursday 5 November. Oettinger has played 12 of their games and Casey DeSmith 4. The Sharks are 7-9-1, 4-4-1 on the road, and lost 7-2 at Los Angeles on Wednesday 4 November. Askarov has played 11 of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic 6.
Dallas at home, San Jose on the road
The Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Sharks on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66, a deficit of 0.61. Those are the two halves inside our number.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way for Dallas. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78, a surplus of 0.73. San Jose went 21-14-6 at home, 51.2%, scoring 3.07 and allowing 3.46. Dallas was slightly better away than in its own arena, and that half is not in our number.
The season around it
Dallas went 50-20-12 with 112 points in 2025-26 and outscored opponents by 53. The Stars then lost 4-2 to the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the playoffs. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points, was outscored by 41 and missed the playoffs.
The Stars were 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Sharks were 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of their 20 past 60 minutes. The difference shows up in the wider results: San Jose lost by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games, Dallas in 14.
Dallas won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. The 4-1 Stars win in Dallas on Friday 5 December 2025 is inside both halves of our number. The other two were played in San Jose: a 5-3 Stars win on Thursday 18 December 2025 and a 5-4 Sharks win in overtime on Saturday 10 January 2026. Neither is in our number.
Pick: Sharks +235
Bet the Sharks on the moneyline at +235. The gap is 11.6 points toward San Jose, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Sharks +235 and Stars -290 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +235 and -290.
What kills the bet
A shorter Sharks price. At +184 or longer San Jose is a bet whatever Dallas is priced at. Against the Stars at -290, the Sharks stay a bet down to +148.
For the Stars to become the bet, they would have to be -121 or longer, or +176 or longer against the Sharks at +235. They are -290.
The injury list is the rest of it. ESPN’s list has Miro Heiskanen out with an upper-body injury for Dallas, Sam Steel day-to-day for personal reasons, and Kyle Capobianco, Oskar Back and Matt Duchene on injured reserve. For San Jose, Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser are on injured reserve, all with upper-body injuries. Keyser has not played this season, so his absence does not change who starts. Heiskanen’s absence is mentioned only: it does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. Dallas’s games went over 6.5 in 40 of 82 in 2025-26, a 48.8% rate. San Jose’s went over in 42 of 82, 51.2%. The Stars’ home games averaged 6.02 goals, the Sharks’ road games 6.71.
The average of the two rates is 50.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%, so our number leans to the over by 3.2 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at -118 and San Jose +1.5 at -102, which is 51.7% and 48.3% without the margin. In 2025-26 the Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 31.7% of the time against 51.7% priced, a gap of 20.0 points toward Sharks +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Sharks at +235.
Sharks at Stars, Saturday 7 November, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.