Mammoth vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Senators. With Linus Ullmark out, our number is run on Ottawa’s home games without him, and it makes the Senators 56.8% winners against the market’s 48.9%.

The Ottawa Senators are -105 and the Utah Mammoth -115 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 48.9% for Ottawa and 51.1% for Utah. The price has the visitors as a slight favourite. Our number has Ottawa 7.9 points better than that.

How 56.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, listed with a return date of 10 November. That is from ESPN’s injury list, in an entry dated 6 November 2026, 17:20 UTC, and read at 20:33 UTC. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Ullmark appeared in 49 of Ottawa’s 82 games in 2025-26. Behind him were Leevi Merilainen with 20, James Reimer with 14, Mads Sogaard with 2 and Hunter Shepard with 1. Ullmark played in 24 of the 41 home games the method reads.

In the 17 home games without him, the Senators went 11-5-1, a 64.71% home win rate. Our minimum for an NHL re-run is 10 games at that venue, so 17 clears it. It is still a small sample. The Mammoth went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Averaged, those give Ottawa 56.8% and Utah 43.2%.

The full home season gives the same side, but a smaller gap. On Ottawa’s 23-12-6 at Canadian Tire Centre, our number is 52.4% against 48.9% priced, a gap of 3.5 points. That is under our threshold of 5, and on its own it would be a pass. Here the absence moves the number toward the team that lost its goalie: the Senators won more often at home without Ullmark than across the full home season. That is what 17 games say, and 17 games is what we have.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -105 and -115 they come to 104.7%. Taken out, the Senators are 48.9% and the Mammoth 51.1%.

This season so far

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The two teams have the same record, 10-6-1. Ottawa is 5-2-0 at home and won 2-1 at Buffalo on Wednesday 4 November. Utah is 6-4-1 on the road and lost 5-4 in overtime at Montreal on Thursday 5 November.

This season Samuel Ersson and Ullmark have played eight Ottawa games each, and Jonas Johansson four. Neither Ersson nor Johansson is in the 2025-26 goalie list above, so the re-run describes the games without Ullmark played by a different set of goalies. That is our view of the sample’s limit, not part of the method. Karel Vejmelka has played 12 of Utah’s games and Sebastian Cossa seven.

Ottawa at home, Utah on the road

Over the full 2025-26 season the Senators at home scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 0.76. The Mammoth on the road scored 3.2 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.37. Ottawa’s home record was 23-12-6, a 56.1% win rate over 41 games.

The halves the method leaves out: Ottawa on the road went 21-15-5, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.37, a surplus of 0.02. Utah at home went 22-16-3, a 53.7% win rate, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.02. The Senators gave up 2.63 a game at home and 3.37 away. That split is in our number only through its home half.

The season around it

Ottawa finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32, then lost its playoff series 0-4 to Carolina. Utah went 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of 28, then lost 2-4 to Vegas in the playoffs.

Close games split differently. The Senators went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of the 17 that went past regulation. The Mammoth went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of their 16 past 60 minutes. Ottawa won by two goals or more 28 times and lost by two or more 17 times; Utah’s figures were 27 and 22.

The teams met twice in 2025-26. Ottawa won 4-2 at home on Sunday 9 November 2025, a game inside the Mammoth’s road half of our number. Utah won 3-1 at home on Wednesday 7 January 2026, which is in neither half.

Pick: Senators -105

Bet the Senators on the moneyline at -105. The gap is 7.9 points toward Ottawa on its home games without Ullmark, against a threshold of 5. On the full home season the gap is 3.5, below the threshold.

The line read Senators -105 and Mammoth -115 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -110 on both sides, 50.0% each with the margin out. Since opening, the market gives the Mammoth 1.1 points more.

What kills the bet

A shorter Ottawa price. At -107 or longer the Senators are a bet whatever Utah is priced at. Against Utah at -115, they stay a bet down to -135. The current -105 sits two cents from the first of those thresholds.

For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +162 or longer whatever Ottawa’s price. They are -115.

Ullmark’s return date is 10 November, after this game. If he is cleared and starts, the absence no longer applies and the full-season number, a 3.5-point gap, is a pass. ESPN’s injury list also has Ridly Greig out for Ottawa, with Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund on injured reserve. Utah lists Kailer Yamamoto and Nate Schmidt as day-to-day with upper-body injuries, and John Marino and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. Ottawa’s games went over 6.5 in 40 of 82, a 48.8% rate, and Utah’s in 38 of 82, 46.3%. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals and Utah’s road games 6.03.

Averaged, that is 47.6% for the over. With the margin out the over is priced at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, so our number leans to the under by 0.7 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +205 and Ottawa +1.5 at -250, which is 31.5% and 68.5% without the margin. Over the full season the Mammoth won by two or more in 27 of 82 games, and the Senators lost by two or more in 17 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time against 31.5% priced, a gap of 4.6 points toward Senators +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Senators at -105.

Mammoth at Senators, Saturday 7 November, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Ottawa’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.