NHL
NHL · Saturday 7 November
Devils vs Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Islanders at +124. Our number makes New York a 51.2% winner at home against the price’s 42.8%.
The New York Islanders are +124 and the New Jersey Devils -148 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 42.8% for the Islanders and 57.2% for the Devils. The price has the visitors as a clear favourite. Our number has this close to even, with the home side slightly ahead.
How 51.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at UBS Arena, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and the Islanders are 51.2%, the Devils 48.8%. That is 8.4 points better for New York than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +124 and -148 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Islanders are 42.8% and the Devils 57.2%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and so far it favours New Jersey. The Devils are 11-5-0, 3-3-0 on the road, and beat St. Louis 5-4 in overtime on Thursday 5 November. Jake Allen has played eight of their games and Connor Hellebuyck four. The Islanders are 7-6-2, 4-3-1 at home, and lost 5-3 to Carolina on Thursday 5 November. Ilya Sorokin has played 10 of their games and Semyon Varlamov five. None of that moves our number.
New York at home, New Jersey on the road
Over the full season the Islanders at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.98, a deficit of 0.05. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17, a deficit of 0.51. Neither half is strong. The road half is weaker, and it is the half our number uses for New Jersey.
The halves the method leaves out: the Islanders on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 2.76 and allowing 2.90. The Devils at home went 21-17-3, also 51.2%, scoring 2.95 and allowing 3.02. On win rate the two teams were the same team at home and on the road. The goal figures still split them: New Jersey’s road deficit of 0.51 is the largest of the four.
The season around it
Neither team made the playoffs in 2025-26. The Islanders went 43-34-5 with 91 points and were outscored by 8. The Devils went 42-37-3 with 87 points and were outscored by 24.
The Islanders were good in close games. They went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. New Jersey went 20-8-3 in one-goal games and won 13 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The difference shows in the blowouts: the Devils lost by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games, the Islanders in 23 of 82.
The Islanders won all four meetings in 2025-26. Two were at UBS Arena, 2-1 on 23 December and 9-0 on 6 January, and both are inside the Islanders’ home half of our number. The other two were in New Jersey, 3-2 in overtime on 10 November and 3-1 on 5 February. Those are in neither half.
Pick: Islanders +124
Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +124. The gap is 8.4 points toward New York, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Islanders +124 and Devils -148 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +124 and -148, so the market has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Islanders price. At +117 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever New Jersey is priced at. Against the Devils at -148, they stay a bet down to -105.
For the Devils to become the bet, they would have to be +129 or longer. They are -148.
The rest is on the ice, and this time it is not small. ESPN’s injury list has Mathew Barzal on injured reserve with a knee injury and Ryan Pulock out with an upper-body injury. It also lists Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie and Alexander Romanov on injured reserve. New Jersey lists Seamus Casey on injured reserve with a knee injury. None of these absences is in our number, and none changes the call. The Devils’ 11-5-0 start is outside it too. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Islanders’ games went over 5.5 in 41 of 82, the Devils’ in 40 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.91 goals, New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
That is 50.0% and 48.8%, an average of 49.4% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%, so our number leans to the under by 4.9 points. That is short of the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Devils are -1.5 at +170 and the Islanders +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. Over the full season the Devils won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Devils -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 8.1 points toward Islanders +1.5 at -205. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Islanders at +124.
Devils at Islanders, Saturday 7 November, 7:00 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.