Lightning vs Wild Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Wild. Even without Filip Gustavsson, our number puts Minnesota only 4.0 points above the price, and we bet at 5.

The Minnesota Wild are +105 and the Tampa Bay Lightning -125 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 46.8% for Minnesota and 53.2% for Tampa Bay. Our number is 50.8% for the Wild. A 4.0-point gap is real, but it is smaller than the gap we require.

How 50.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury. That comes from ESPN’s injury list, read 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, with the entry dated 5 November and 19 November given as his expected return. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games last season, more than Jesper Wallstedt’s 35. He also played in 26 of the 41 home games the method reads. The Wild played 15 home games without him and went 9-4-2, a 60.0% home win rate. Fifteen clears our NHL minimum of 10, so the re-run stands.

The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate over 41 games. Average 60.0% with 41.5% and the Wild are 50.8%, the Lightning 49.2%. That is 4.0 points better for Minnesota than the price, against a threshold of 5.

The full home season gives the same side with less to it. The Wild went 23-10-8 at home, a 56.1% rate. On that number Minnesota is 48.8% and the gap is 2.0 points. Without Gustavsson the Wild were a better home team, which widens the gap. It still does not reach a bet.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +105 and -125 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Wild are 46.8% and the Lightning 53.2%.

Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is outside our number. Both teams have started well. The Wild are 11-3-3, 4-0-1 at home, and won 4-2 in Philadelphia on Tuesday 3 November. Wallstedt has played 15 of their games and Calvin Pickard two. The Lightning are 10-3-2 overall but 2-3-2 on the road, and they beat Chicago 4-1 on Thursday 5 November. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played 12 of their games and Dennis Hildeby three.

Minnesota at home, Tampa Bay on the road

At home last season the Wild scored 3.17 a game and allowed 2.80, a surplus of 0.37. On the road the Lightning scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.90. Tampa Bay was the stronger travelling team by more than half a goal a game.

Our number leaves out two halves. The Lightning at home went 25-14-1, a 62.5% win rate, scoring 3.27 and allowing 2.75. The Wild on the road went 23-14-4, 56.1%, scoring 3.46 and allowing 3.05. Minnesota won at the same rate in both buildings, so for the Wild the excluded half tells the same story as the half we use.

The season around it

These teams finished two points apart. Tampa Bay went 50-26-6 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 59, then lost a seven-game series 4-3 to Montreal. Minnesota went 46-24-12 with 104 points and a goal difference of 32. The Wild then beat Dallas 4-2 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Colorado.

The two teams won in different ways. The Wild went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of the 27 that went past regulation. The Lightning went 15-10-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of 16 past 60 minutes. Tampa Bay won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games, while Minnesota did it in 26.

They split two meetings in 2025-26. The Wild won 5-1 at home on Tuesday 3 March. That game is a Lightning road loss, so it sits inside our number through Tampa Bay’s road half. The Lightning won 6-3 at home on Tuesday 24 March, which is in neither half.

Pick: No bet

Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 4.0 points toward the Wild on Minnesota’s home games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5. On the full home season it is 2.0. At +105 the price is close enough to our number that the margin eats what is left.

The line read Wild +105 and Lightning -125 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +102 and -122. That is a move toward Tampa Bay: the market gives the Lightning 0.6 points more than it did at the open.

What kills the bet

A longer Wild price would make this a bet. At +119 or longer the Wild are a bet whatever Tampa Bay is priced at. Against the Lightning at -125, they become a bet at +113. The line has moved the other way since the open.

For the Lightning to become the bet, they would have to be +126 or longer. Against the Wild at +105, the Lightning would need +159. They are -125.

The injury list matters more than usual here. Besides Gustavsson, ESPN lists Nick Foligno, Marcus Foligno, Jared Spurgeon and Brock Faber on injured reserve for Minnesota. Tampa Bay lists Yanni Gourde on injured reserve with a hip injury. No other goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, with the over at +105 and the under at -125. The Wild’s games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82 last season, and the Lightning’s in 38 of 82. Minnesota’s home games averaged 5.97 goals and Tampa Bay’s road games 6.56.

That is 51.2% and 46.3%, an average of 48.8% for the over. With the margin removed, the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%. Our number leans to the over by 2.0 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Tampa Bay is -1.5 at +185 and Minnesota +1.5 at -225. Without the margin that is 33.6% and 66.4%. Over the full season the Lightning won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games, and the Wild lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Lightning -1.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 33.6% priced, a gap of 0.7 points toward Wild +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean and too small to matter. No bet on this game.

Lightning at Wild, Saturday 7 November, 8:00 PM ET, Grand Casino Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Minnesota’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.