NHL
NHL · Saturday 7 November
Blues vs Predators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Predators. Our number makes Nashville a 54.3% winner at home, 4.3 points above the price and short of the 5 points we need.
The St. Louis Blues and the Nashville Predators are both -110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 50.0% for each side. The market calls this a coin flip. Our number leans to the home team, though not far enough to bet.
How 54.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena, and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Predators went 20-17-3 at Bridgestone Arena, a 50.0% home win rate. The Blues went 17-19-5 away from home, a 58.5% road loss rate. Averaged, Nashville is 54.3% and St. Louis 45.7%. That is 4.3 points better for the Predators than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -110 and -110 it comes to 104.8%. Taken out, each side is 50.0%.
Our threshold is 5 points. Below it, the gap is too small to separate a real edge from the noise in one season of splits, and 4.3 is below it.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is outside the method. The Predators are 7-4-5, 5-3-2 at home, and won 3-2 in overtime at Colorado on Thursday 5 November. Juuse Saros has played 11 of their games and Justus Annunen 4. The Blues are 7-7-2, 3-5-1 on the road, and lost 5-4 in overtime at New Jersey the same night. Joel Hofer has played 11 of their games and Jordan Binnington 5.
Nashville at home, St. Louis on the road
The Predators at home scored 3.12 a game and allowed 3.27, a deficit of 0.15. The Blues on the road scored 2.80 and allowed 3.22, a deficit of 0.42. Neither half is a good team. The method measures which one is worse, and on the road that is St. Louis.
The halves the method leaves out look much the same. Nashville on the road went 17-16-7, a 42.5% win rate, scoring 3.00 and allowing 3.33. St. Louis at home went 20-14-7, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.07. Neither of those numbers is in ours.
Over the full season the two finished level on 86 points, both in the Western Conference, and both missed the playoffs. Nashville went 38-34-10 and was outscored by 22. St. Louis went 37-33-12 and was outscored by 27.
Games past regulation split them. The Predators went 20-8-10 in one-goal games and won 10 of the 20 that went past 60 minutes. The Blues went 18-9-12 in one-goal games and won 4 of their 16 past regulation. Nashville lost by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, St. Louis in 24 of 82.
The Predators won three of the four 2025-26 games between them. In Nashville they won 7-2 on 11 December 2025 and 6-5 on 2 February 2026; both are inside our number, in both halves. In St. Louis the Predators won 5-2 on 15 December 2025 and the Blues won 3-2 on 27 December 2025; those two are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 4.3 points toward the Predators, against a threshold of 5. The price is right enough that a bet on either side has no measured edge.
The line read Blues -110 and Predators -110 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Blues -115 and Predators -105, 48.9% for Nashville once the margin is out. Since the open the market has moved 1.1 points toward the Predators, which closes part of the gap our number found.
What kills the bet
A longer Nashville price makes one. At +103 or longer the Predators are a bet whatever St. Louis is priced at; against the Blues at -110, they become a bet at -104 or longer. They are -110, so the price has to drift only a little.
For the Blues to become the bet, they would have to be +146 or longer. They are -110, and our number gives no reason to expect that.
The rest is outside our number. ESPN’s injury list has Jonathan Marchessault day-to-day with a lower-body injury for Nashville. St. Louis lists Logan Mailloux, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Predators’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, a 53.7% rate, and the Blues’ in 39 of 82, 47.6%. Nashville’s home games averaged 6.39 goals and St. Louis’s road games 6.02.
Averaged, our number has the over at 50.6%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%, so we lean to the under by 3.7 points. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Blues are -1.5 at +225 and the Predators +1.5 at -278, which is 29.5% and 70.5% without the margin. Over the full season the Blues won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and the Predators lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Blues -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 29.5% priced, a gap of 2.1 points toward Predators +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, and a small one. No bet on this game.
Blues at Predators, Saturday 7 November, 1:00 PM ET, Bridgestone Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.