Sharks vs Wild Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Sharks to win in Minnesota. With Filip Gustavsson out, our number gives San Jose a 42.0% chance against the price’s 30.9%.

The San Jose Sharks are +210 and the Minnesota Wild -258 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 30.9% for San Jose and 69.1% for Minnesota. Our number makes Minnesota the likelier winner at 58.0%. The gap is in how much likelier: 11.1 points less than the price says.

How 58.0% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.

Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury (ESPN injury list, read 5 November 2026, 17:32 UTC; listed since 18 October, with 19 November given as his return date). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games last season, more than Jesper Wallstedt’s 35, and in 26 of the 41 home games. In the 15 home games he did not play, the Wild went 9-4-2, a 60.0% home win rate. Our minimum for an NHL re-run is 10 games at that venue without the goalie, so 15 is enough to use. It is still a small sample.

The Sharks went 18-21-2 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate over 41 games. Average 60.0% with 56.1% and the Wild are 58.0%, the Sharks 42.0%. That is 11.1 points better for San Jose than the price.

The full home season gives the same side with a wider gap. Minnesota went 23-10-8 at Grand Casino Arena, a 56.1% home win rate; on that number the Wild are 56.1% and the gap is 13.0 points toward San Jose. Taking Gustavsson out makes Minnesota stronger at home in this sample, and the gap narrower. It stays above 5 either way.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +210 and -258 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Sharks are 30.9% and the Wild 69.1%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and it has gone well for Minnesota. The Wild are 11-3-3, 4-0-1 at home, and won 4-2 in Philadelphia on Tuesday 3 November. Wallstedt has played 15 of their games and Calvin Pickard two. The Sharks are 7-9-1, 4-4-1 on the road, and lost 7-2 in Los Angeles on Wednesday 4 November. Yaroslav Askarov has played 11 of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic six.

Minnesota at home, San Jose on the road

Over the full season the Wild at home scored 3.17 a game and allowed 2.80, a surplus of 0.37. The Sharks on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66, a deficit of 0.61. On goals, the road half is the weaker side of this matchup by a clear margin.

The halves the method leaves out: San Jose at home went 21-14-6, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.07 and allowing 3.46. Minnesota on the road went 23-14-4, 56.1%, scoring 3.46 and allowing 3.05. The Wild were as good away as at home, and that half is not in our number.

The season around it

Minnesota went 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32. The Wild beat Dallas 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-1 to Colorado. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points, was outscored by 41, and missed the playoffs.

Both teams lived in close games. The Sharks went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 20 that went past regulation. The Wild went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of their 27 past 60 minutes. San Jose lost by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games.

San Jose won all three meetings in 2025-26, none in regulation: 6-5 in overtime on 26 October 2025 and 2-1 in overtime on 11 November 2025, both in Minnesota, then 4-3 in a shootout on 31 December 2025 in San Jose. The two games in Minnesota are in both halves of the full-season number and in the Sharks’ half of the re-run. The game in San Jose is in neither. Three games is a sample that proves nothing.

Pick: Sharks +210

Bet the Sharks on the moneyline at +210. The gap is 11.1 points toward San Jose on Minnesota’s home games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5, and 13.0 on the full home season.

The line read Sharks +210 and Wild -258 on 5 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +210 and -258, and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter San Jose price. At +170 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at; against Minnesota at -258, they stay a bet down to +136.

For the Wild to become the bet, they would have to be -112 or longer whatever the Sharks are priced at, or +175 or longer against the Sharks at +210. They are -258.

The rest is on the ice. Minnesota’s start to this season is strong, and none of it is in our number. Besides Gustavsson, ESPN’s injury list has Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber, Marcus Foligno and Nick Foligno on injured reserve for Minnesota. San Jose lists Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser on injured reserve; Keyser has played none of the Sharks’ 17 games this season. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -105 and under -115. The Wild’s games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, the Sharks’ games in 42 of 82. Minnesota’s home games averaged 5.97 goals, San Jose’s road games 6.71.

That is 51.2% for the over from each side, so our number is 51.2%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, a lean to the over of 2.3 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Minnesota is -1.5 at -108 and San Jose +1.5 at -112, which is 49.6% and 50.4% without the margin. Over the full season the Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 34.1% of the time against 49.6% priced, a gap of 15.4 points toward Sharks +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Sharks at +210.

Sharks at Wild, Friday 6 November, 8:00 PM ET, Grand Casino Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 5 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Minnesota’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 5 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.