NHL
NHL · Friday 6 November
Ducks vs Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Flames. Our number has Calgary 3.8 points better than the price, and we bet at 5.
The Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames prediction rests on one comparison. DraftKings has the Flames -115 and the Ducks -105. With the margin out, that is 51.1% for Calgary and 48.9% for Anaheim. Our number is 54.9% for Calgary. The market and our method agree on the side but disagree by only 3.8 points, and 3.8 is under the threshold.
How 54.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Flames went 23-13-5 at Scotiabank Saddledome, a 56.1% home win rate. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate. Averaged, Calgary is 54.9% and Anaheim 45.1%. That is 3.8 points better for the Flames than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 the two come to 104.7%. With that removed, the Flames are 51.1% and the Ducks 48.9%.
A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. The rule is set before the game, so a gap of 3.8 is a pass however it leans. The Flames sit at 3.8.
None of this season is in the figures. Calgary is 7-8-1, 5-3-0 at home, and lost 2-1 in overtime at Seattle on Wednesday 4 November. Dustin Wolf has played nine of their games, Devin Cooley seven and Arsenii Sergeev one. Anaheim is 7-7-1, 5-3-0 on the road, and won 5-4 at Vancouver on Tuesday 3 November. Lukas Dostal has played nine, Ville Husso five and Laurent Brossoit two. These records sit outside the method.
Calgary at home, Anaheim on the road
Over 2025-26 the Flames at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.61, a surplus of 0.32. The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.42. These are the two halves our number uses.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Calgary on the road went 11-26-4, a 26.8% win rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71. Anaheim at home went 24-13-4, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 3.49. Both teams were better in their own arena.
The season around it
Anaheim finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of -15. The Ducks then beat Edmonton 4-2 in a playoff series and lost 4-2 to Vegas. Calgary finished 34-39-9 with 77 points, was outscored by 47, and missed the playoffs.
In our view the Ducks won close games at a rate their goal difference does not explain. They went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of the 23 that went past regulation. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Flames lost by two goals or more in 33 of 82 games. The Ducks did so in 27.
Anaheim won three of the meetings in 2025-26. Two were in Calgary: a 4-3 overtime win on 25 January and a 3-2 overtime win on 26 March. Both are inside our number, as Flames home losses and Ducks road wins. The two in Anaheim, a 3-2 Ducks shootout win on 1 March and a 5-3 Flames win on 4 April, are in neither half. A sample that small proves nothing on its own.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.8 points toward the Flames against a threshold of 5.
The line read Flames -115 and Ducks -105 on 5 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, and the market’s chances have not moved since.
What kills the bet
A longer Calgary price makes the Flames a bet. At +101 or longer they are a bet whatever Anaheim is priced at. Against the Ducks at -105, they become a bet at -104 or longer. That is the price to watch.
For the Ducks to become the bet, they would need +150 or longer whatever Calgary’s price, or +179 or longer against the Flames at -115. They are -105.
ESPN’s injury list has Connor Zary out with a knee injury for Calgary, Brennan Othmann day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Devin Cooley, Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek on injured reserve. Cooley is a goalie; Wolf has played more of Calgary’s games this season. Anaheim lists A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore and Ryan Poehling on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. The Flames’ games went over 6.5 in 29 of 82, a 35.4% rate. The Ducks’ games went over in 49 of 82, 59.8%. Calgary’s home games averaged 5.54 goals, Anaheim’s road games 6.66.
Averaged, our over is 47.6%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 47.8% and the under at 52.2%. The lean is 0.3 points to the under. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Flames are -1.5 at +195 and the Ducks +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. The Flames won by two goals or more in 20 of 82 games, and the Ducks lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Flames -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 32.5% priced, a gap of 3.8 points toward Ducks +1.5. That is below the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game at the current prices.
Ducks at Flames, Friday 6 November, 8:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 5 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 5 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.