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Tampa Bay Lightning

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The Lightning were underdogs only 11 times in 2025-26, and ten of those games beat the +1.5 line. In the other 71, as favorites, Tampa Bay went 43-28 and lost 2.2 units on the moneyline.

A favorite almost every night

Tampa Bay went 50-32, a record matched by Buffalo and Dallas and beaten only by Colorado and Carolina. The market priced the Lightning as favorites in 71 of 82 games; only Colorado and Carolina were underdogs fewer times. One unit on them in every game returned 1.18 units, and eleven NHL teams returned more.

One unit on the Lightning to win, every game0-5+5+1.18 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 82 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

As favorites they won 43 and lost 28, and the moneyline lost 2.2 units. On the -1.5 puck line those 71 games produced 28 covers. As underdogs they went 7-4 for 3.38 units, covering +1.5 ten times in eleven. Only Colorado, an underdog once, covered at a higher rate.

Two months made the season

November went 11-3 and returned 6.19 units. January went 11-2 and returned 5.09. The longest winning run, eleven games, ran from 20 December to 13 January. March went 8-8 and gave back 3.55 units, and October produced two puck line covers in eleven games.

The Lightning 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-10-09 v Ottawa Senators 4-52025-10-11 v New Jersey Devils 3-52025-10-13 at Boston Bruins 4-32025-10-14 at Washington Capitals 2-32025-10-17 at Detroit Red Wings 1-22025-10-18 at Columbus Blue Jackets 2-32025-10-23 v Chicago Blackhawks 2-32025-10-25 v Anaheim Ducks 4-32025-10-26 v Vegas Golden Knights 2-12025-10-28 at Nashville Predators 5-22025-10-30 v Dallas Stars 2-12025-11-02 at Utah Mammoth 4-22025-11-04 at Colorado Avalanche 2-32025-11-06 at Vegas Golden Knights 6-32025-11-08 v Washington Capitals 3-22025-11-12 v New York Rangers 3-72025-11-15 at Florida Panthers 3-12025-11-16 v Vancouver Canucks 2-62025-11-18 v New Jersey Devils 5-12025-11-20 v Edmonton Oilers 2-12025-11-22 at Washington Capitals 5-32025-11-24 v Philadelphia Flyers 3-02025-11-26 v Calgary Flames 5-12025-11-28 at Detroit Red Wings 6-32025-11-29 at New York Rangers 4-12025-12-02 at New York Islanders 1-22025-12-04 v Pittsburgh Penguins 3-42025-12-06 v New York Islanders 0-22025-12-08 at Toronto Maple Leafs 0-22025-12-09 at Montreal Canadiens 6-12025-12-11 at New Jersey Devils 8-42025-12-13 at New York Islanders 2-32025-12-15 v Florida Panthers 2-52025-12-18 v Los Angeles Kings 1-22025-12-20 v Carolina Hurricanes 6-42025-12-22 v St. Louis Blues 4-12025-12-27 at Florida Panthers 4-22025-12-28 v Montreal Canadiens 5-42025-12-31 at Anaheim Ducks 4-32026-01-01 at Los Angeles Kings 5-32026-01-03 at San Jose Sharks 7-32026-01-06 v Colorado Avalanche 4-22026-01-10 at Philadelphia Flyers 7-22026-01-12 at Philadelphia Flyers 5-12026-01-13 at Pittsburgh Penguins 2-12026-01-16 at St. Louis Blues 2-32026-01-18 at Dallas Stars 4-12026-01-20 v San Jose Sharks 4-12026-01-23 at Chicago Blackhawks 2-12026-01-24 at Columbus Blue Jackets 5-82026-01-26 v Utah Mammoth 2-02026-01-29 v Winnipeg Jets 4-12026-02-01 v Boston Bruins 6-52026-02-03 v Buffalo Sabres 4-32026-02-05 v Florida Panthers 6-12026-02-25 v Toronto Maple Leafs 4-22026-02-26 at Carolina Hurricanes 4-52026-02-28 v Buffalo Sabres 2-62026-03-03 at Minnesota Wild 1-52026-03-05 at Winnipeg Jets 1-42026-03-07 at Toronto Maple Leafs 5-22026-03-08 at Buffalo Sabres 7-82026-03-10 v Columbus Blue Jackets 2-52026-03-12 v Detroit Red Wings 4-12026-03-14 v Carolina Hurricanes 2-42026-03-17 at Seattle Kraken 6-22026-03-19 at Vancouver Canucks 6-22026-03-21 at Edmonton Oilers 5-22026-03-22 at Calgary Flames 3-42026-03-24 v Minnesota Wild 6-32026-03-26 v Seattle Kraken 3-42026-03-28 v Ottawa Senators 4-22026-03-29 v Nashville Predators 3-22026-03-31 v Montreal Canadiens 1-42026-04-02 v Pittsburgh Penguins 6-32026-04-04 v Boston Bruins 3-12026-04-06 at Buffalo Sabres 2-42026-04-07 at Ottawa Senators 2-62026-04-09 at Montreal Canadiens 1-22026-04-11 at Boston Bruins 2-12026-04-13 v Detroit Red Wings 4-32026-04-15 v New York Rangers 2-4Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margin0
50-32 in 82 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Home ice and the puck line

Away from home the Lightning covered 22 of 41 puck lines. At home they covered 16 of 40; 22 teams covered more often at home. Both of the defeats at the shortest price came at home at -290: Chicago won 3-2 and Seattle won 4-3 in overtime. The remaining game, the Stadium Series at a neutral site, was a 6-5 shootout win over Boston.

The Lightning at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (40)won 25 (62.5%)Away (41)won 24 (58.5%)Favorite (71)won 43 (60.6%)Underdog (11)won 7 (63.6%)50%
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Tampa Bay allowed 2.82 goals a game, fewer than every team except Colorado and Dallas, and scored 3.54. The total split 42 over, 40 under.

No covers against Buffalo

Buffalo won three of four meetings, and Tampa Bay covered none of the four puck lines, 2.51 units lost. Boston lost all four, but the Lightning covered only one of those puck lines. Columbus and the Islanders swept their three games with Tampa Bay, which cost three units per opponent. Philadelphia lost all three, with three covers.

The Lightning against the teams they played mostBoston Bruins4-0Buffalo Sabres1-3Detroit Red Wings3-1Florida Panthers3-1Montreal Canadiens2-2Carolina Hurricanes1-2Columbus Blue Jackets0-3New Jersey Devils2-1
2025-26 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Questions and answers

How did the Lightning fare in their 11 games as underdogs?

3.38 units from 11 games in 2025-26, a 7-4 record, with 10 covers at +1.5.

Was backing the Lightning on the moneyline profitable in 2025-26?

Barely: 1.18 units over 82 games, and a 2.2-unit loss in their 71 games as favorites.

How did the Lightning do against Buffalo?

1-3, no puck line covers in four games, 2.51 units lost.

Past games

  1. Wild at Lightning · 8 OctNo bet
  2. Flyers at Lightning · 5 OctThe Lightning won 26 of 41 at home last season.
  3. Capitals at Lightning · 3 OctOur number has the Lightning 2.6 points above the price, about half of what a bet needs.
  4. Lightning at Rangers · 1 OctThe Rangers won 14 of 41 at home last season.

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