NHL
NHL · Thursday 12 November
Lightning vs Blue Jackets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Lightning. Our number has Tampa Bay winning 54.9% of the time in Columbus, 3.2 points above the price and short of the 5 points we need.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are -118 and the Columbus Blue Jackets -102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.7% for Tampa Bay and 48.3% for Columbus. The market calls this close to a coin flip, with the visitors slightly ahead. Our number takes the same side and differs by too little to bet.
How 45.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out, so “at home” here means games played in a team’s own arena.
The Blue Jackets went 20-13-8 at Nationwide Arena, a 48.8% home win rate. The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Columbus is 45.1%, Tampa Bay 54.9%. Against the price, that is 3.2 points toward the Lightning.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -118 and -102 they come to 104.6%. Taken out, Tampa Bay is 51.7% and Columbus 48.3%.
The rule is fixed before the price is read: a side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. This gap is 3.2. Below the threshold we treat the price as right, and DraftKings has the Lightning within 3.2 points of where our method puts them.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is not in the figures. Tampa Bay is 11-4-2, 3-4-2 on the road, and lost 4-3 at Winnipeg on Sunday 8 November. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played 13 of its games and Dennis Hildeby 4. Columbus is 7-9-0, 6-4-0 at home, and lost 4-1 to Florida on Tuesday 10 November. Jet Greaves and Cam Talbot have played nine games each. Both of this season’s splits point more toward Columbus than last season’s do. At this sample that is a note, not a rate.
Columbus at home, Tampa Bay on the road
At home last season the Blue Jackets scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.07, a surplus of 0.22. The Lightning on the road scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.90. That road surplus is the larger number of the two halves our method uses.
The halves the method leaves out: Columbus on the road went 20-17-4, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.10. Tampa Bay at home went 25-14-1, 62.5%, scoring 3.27 and allowing 2.75. Columbus won at the same rate in both buildings. Tampa Bay won more often at home but scored more on the road, 3.73 a game against 3.27.
Over the full season the Lightning were the stronger team. They went 50-26-6 with 106 points, outscored opponents by 59, and lost their playoff series to the Montreal Canadiens 3-4. The Blue Jackets went 40-30-12 with 92 points, scored and allowed 3.09 a game for a goal difference of 0, and missed the playoffs.
Columbus lived in close games. It went 18-13-12 in one-goal games, and 24 of its games went past regulation, of which it won 12. Tampa Bay went 15-10-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Lightning won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games; the Blue Jackets did it in 22 and lost by that much in 17.
Columbus won all three meetings in 2025-26. The 3-2 win on 18 October 2025 and the 8-5 win on 24 January 2026 were at Nationwide Arena, so both sit inside both halves of our number. The 5-2 Columbus win on 10 March 2026 was in Tampa Bay and is in neither half. Three games prove nothing on their own.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.2 points toward Tampa Bay against a threshold of 5.
The line read Lightning -118 and Blue Jackets -102 on 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s chances have not moved since opening: 51.7% Tampa Bay, 48.3% Columbus.
What kills the bet
A longer Lightning price makes them the bet. At +101 or longer they are a bet whatever Columbus is priced at; against Columbus at -102, they become a bet at -101 or longer. They are -118, so that takes a move of 17 cents in Tampa Bay’s favour on this side alone.
For the Blue Jackets to become the bet, they would need +150 or longer whatever Tampa Bay is priced at, or +176 or longer against the Lightning at -118. They are -102.
ESPN’s injury list, read 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, has Brayden Point on injured reserve for Tampa Bay, undisclosed. Columbus lists nobody. No goalie is on either list, and Point’s absence does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. Columbus’s games went over 6.5 in 37 of 82, Tampa Bay’s in 38 of 82. Columbus’s home games averaged 6.36 goals, Tampa Bay’s road games 6.56.
That is 45.1% and 46.3%, an average of 45.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%, so our number leans to the under by 1.0 point. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Tampa Bay is -1.5 at +195 and Columbus +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. Last season the Lightning won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games, and the Blue Jackets lost by two or more in 17 of 82. Averaged, Lightning -1.5 lands 31.7% of the time against 32.5% priced, a gap of 0.8 points toward Blue Jackets +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean and nothing more. No bet on this game.
Lightning at Blue Jackets, Thursday 12 November, 7:00 PM ET, Nationwide Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.