NHL
NHL · Thursday 12 November
Islanders vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Islanders on the moneyline. Our number has New York winning in Los Angeles 57.3% of the time, and the price gives them 46.8%.
The New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings is priced Islanders +105 and Kings -125 at DraftKings. Take the margin out and the market has the Kings at 53.2% and the Islanders at 46.8%. Our number is 57.3% for the Islanders. That gap of 10.5 points is the whole argument.
How 42.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.
The Kings went 15-17-9 at crypto.com Arena, a 36.6% home win rate. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and the Kings are 42.7%, the Islanders 57.3%. Against the market’s 46.8%, that is 10.5 points toward New York.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 the two come to 104.3%. With it removed, the Kings are 53.2% and the Islanders 46.8%. Our rule is to bet a side only when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and it has started badly for Los Angeles. The Kings are 5-9-2, 2-6-0 at home, and lost 3-0 to Nashville on Tuesday 10 November. Darcy Kuemper has played 10 of their games and Anton Forsberg 7. The Islanders are 7-6-4, 3-3-2 on the road, and lost 3-2 in a shootout in San Jose on Monday 9 November. Ilya Sorokin has played 12 of their games and Semyon Varlamov 5.
Los Angeles at home, New York on the road
The Kings were a weak home team last season. They scored 2.63 a game at home and allowed 3.12, a deficit of 0.49 a game. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.14.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way for Los Angeles. On the road the Kings went 20-10-11, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.85 and allowing 2.90. The Islanders at home went 22-17-2, 53.7%, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.98. The Kings were better away from their own arena than in it, and that road half is not in our number.
The season around it
The two finished with almost the same points. The Islanders went 43-34-5 for 91 points with a goal difference of -8, and missed the playoffs. The Kings went 35-27-20 for 90 points with a goal difference of -22, then were swept 0-4 by Colorado.
Close games split them. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. The Kings went 21-6-20 in one-goal games and won 13 of their 33 past 60 minutes. Los Angeles lost by two goals or more in 21 of 82 games, New York in 23 of 82.
Los Angeles won both meetings in 2025-26. The Kings won 5-3 at home on Thursday 5 March 2026, a game inside both halves of our number: it is a Kings home game and an Islanders road game. They won 3-2 in New York on Friday 13 March 2026, which is in neither half.
Pick: Islanders +105
Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +105. The gap is 10.5 points toward New York against a threshold of 5.
The line read Islanders +105 and Kings -125 on 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Islanders +114 and Kings -135. Since opening the market has moved toward the Islanders, giving them 46.8% against 44.9% at the open.
What kills the bet
A shorter Islanders price. At -109 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever the Kings are priced at. Against the Kings at -125, they stay a bet down to -156.
For the Kings to become the bet, they would have to be +165 or longer whatever New York is priced at, or +239 or longer against the Islanders at +105. They are -125.
The rest is on the ice, and none of it is in our number. ESPN’s injury list has Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie and Alexander Romanov on injured reserve for New York, and Ryan Pulock out. Los Angeles lists Kevin Fiala and Jakub Dvorak on injured reserve and Erik Gustafsson day-to-day. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -112 and under -108. The Kings’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82, a 47.6% rate. The Islanders’ went over in 41 of 82, 50.0%. Kings home games averaged 5.75 goals, Islanders road games 5.66.
Averaged, our number has the over at 48.8%. With the margin removed the market has the over at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%. That is a lean of 1.7 points to the under, well short of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Kings are -1.5 at +185 and the Islanders +1.5 at -225: 33.6% and 66.4% without the margin. Last season the Kings won by two goals or more in 14 of 82 games and the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Kings -1.5 lands 22.6% of the time against 33.6% priced, a gap of 11.1 points toward Islanders +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Islanders at +105.
Islanders at Kings, Thursday 12 November, 10:00 PM ET, crypto.com Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.