NHL
NHL · Thursday 12 November
Avalanche vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Avalanche. Our number leans to Colorado by 4.1 points, and a bet needs 5.
The Colorado Avalanche are -125 and the Ottawa Senators +105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 53.2% for Colorado and 46.8% for Ottawa. Our number has Colorado at 57.3%. The market and our number agree on the side, and the gap between them is too small to stake.
How 42.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Senators went 23-12-6 at Canadian Tire Centre, a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road, a 29.3% road loss rate. Averaged, that makes Ottawa 42.7% and Colorado 57.3%. The market has Ottawa at 46.8%, so the gap is 4.1 points toward Colorado.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Avalanche are 53.2% and the Senators 46.8%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. Both teams are 11-6-2. Ottawa is 6-2-1 at home and lost 3-2 in overtime to Washington on Tuesday 10 November. Colorado is 4-5-0 on the road and won 6-3 in Toronto the same night. Samuel Ersson has played 10 of Ottawa’s games and Linus Ullmark 8. For Colorado, Mackenzie Blackwood has played 15 and Scott Wedgewood 5.
Ottawa at home, Colorado on the road
The halves our number uses are both strong. The Senators at home scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 0.76. The Avalanche on the road scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32, a surplus of 1.22. Colorado’s road record, 29-7-5, was better than its home record.
The halves the method leaves out: Colorado at home went 26-9-6, a 63.4% win rate, scoring 3.83 and allowing 2.63. Ottawa on the road went 21-15-5, 51.2%, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.37, a surplus of 0.02. The Senators’ defence was the difference between their two halves. Their scoring was 3.39 a game in both.
The season around it
Colorado went 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99. It beat Los Angeles 4-0 and Minnesota 4-1 in the playoffs, then lost 4-0 to Vegas. Ottawa went 44-27-11 with 99 points and a goal difference of +32, and lost its playoff series to Carolina 4-0.
The Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games and lost by that much in 12. Ottawa won by two or more in 28 and lost by two or more in 17. In one-goal games Colorado went 14-4-11 and Ottawa 16-10-11. Colorado won 7 of the 18 games it played past regulation. Ottawa won 6 of 17.
The teams split two meetings in 2025-26. Colorado won 8-2 at home on Thursday 8 January. That game is in neither half of our number. Ottawa won 5-2 at home on Wednesday 28 January, and that one is in both halves: the Senators’ home record and the Avalanche’s road record.
Pick: No bet on Avalanche -125
No bet. Our number has the Avalanche 4.1 points better than the price, against a threshold of 5. The price is about right on what 2025-26 measured, with a lean to Colorado that does not clear the rule.
The line read Avalanche -125 and Senators +105 on 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s 53.2% for Colorado has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A longer Colorado price turns this into a bet. At -109 or longer the Avalanche are a bet whatever Ottawa is priced at. Against Ottawa at +105, they become a bet at -115 or longer. They are -125.
For the Senators to be the bet, they would need +165 or longer whatever Colorado is priced at, or +197 or longer against Colorado at -125. They are +105.
ESPN’s injury list has Linus Ullmark day-to-day with a lower-body injury and Nick Cousins out. Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund are on injured reserve for Ottawa. Colorado lists Josh Manson and Zachary L’Heureux on injured reserve. None of these re-runs our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. Ottawa’s games went over 6.5 in 40 of 82, a 48.8% rate. Colorado’s went over in 32 of 82, 39.0%. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals and Colorado’s road games 5.86.
Our over is 43.9%. With the margin removed the market has the over at 47.4% and the under at 52.6%, so our number leans to the under by 3.5 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +190 and Ottawa +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. The Avalanche won by two or more in 41 of 82 games and the Senators lost by two or more in 17 of 82. Our number has Colorado -1.5 landing 35.4% of the time, 2.3 points above the price. That is a lean below the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Avalanche at Senators, Thursday 12 November, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.