Rangers vs Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Flames on the moneyline. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number uses New York’s road games without him, and it makes Calgary a 62.4% winner at home against the price’s 44.9%.

The Calgary Flames are +114 and the New York Rangers -135 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 44.9% for Calgary and 55.1% for New York. The price makes the visitors a modest favourite. Our number makes the home side a clear one.

How 62.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out, so the method reads 40 road games for New York.

Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, read 10 November 2026, 16:32 UTC; entry dated 11 October, return date given as 15 September 2027). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of the Rangers’ 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick’s 25, Spencer Martin’s 6 and Dylan Garand’s 3. He played 24 of the 40 road games. In the 16 he missed, New York went 5-11-0, a 68.75% road loss rate. Our minimum for this re-run is 10 games, so 16 is enough to use.

The Flames went 23-13-5 at Scotiabank Saddledome, a 56.1% home win rate. The average of 56.1% and 68.75% is 62.4% for Calgary, which leaves 37.6% for New York. That is 17.5 points better for the Flames than the price.

The full road season points the same way. The Rangers went 19-19-2 away from home, a 52.5% road loss rate. On that number Calgary is 54.3%, and the gap is 9.4 points. Taking Shesterkin out makes New York weaker on the road and the gap wider.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At +114 and -135 the two come to 104.2%. With it removed, the Flames are 44.9% and the Rangers 55.1%.

Every input comes from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. Calgary is 8-9-1 overall and 6-4-0 at home, and beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3 in overtime on Sunday, 8 November. Dustin Wolf has played 10 games in goal and Devin Cooley 8. The Rangers are 10-8-1 overall but 2-6-1 on the road, and lost 3-1 at Edmonton on Monday, 9 November. Garand has played 14 games, Shesterkin 5 and Joonas Korpisalo 1.

Calgary at home, New York on the road

These are the halves the method uses. At home, the Flames scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.61, a surplus of 0.32. On the road, the Rangers scored 3.17 and allowed 3.12, a surplus of 0.05.

The method leaves out the other two halves. Calgary went 11-26-4 on the road, a 26.8% win rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71. New York was worse at home than away: 14-20-7, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.02. Neither of those records is in our number.

The season around it

The two teams finished level. Both went 34-39-9 for 77 points and both missed the playoffs, Calgary in the Western Conference and New York in the Eastern. The goal difference split them. The Flames were outscored by 47 and the Rangers by 12.

Close games did not separate them much. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 games that went past regulation. New York went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of 18 past 60 minutes. The Flames lost by two goals or more in 33 of 82 games. The Rangers won by two or more in 23.

The teams split two meetings in 2025-26. Calgary won 5-1 at home on 26 October 2025, and that game is in the Flames’ home half of our number. New York won 4-0 at home on 10 March 2026, and that game is in neither half.

Pick: Flames +114

Bet the Flames on the moneyline at +114. On the Rangers’ road games without Shesterkin, the gap is 17.5 points toward Calgary against a threshold of 5. On the full road season it is 9.4.

The line read Flames +114 and Rangers -135 on 10 November 2026 at 16:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so nothing has moved since opening.

What kills the bet

A shorter Calgary price. At -135 or longer, the Flames are a bet whatever New York is priced at. Against the Rangers at -135, they stay a bet down to -345.

For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to reach +207 or longer. They are -135.

The rest happens on the ice. Besides Shesterkin, ESPN’s injury list has Alberts Smits out with an upper-body injury for New York. Sean Durzi, Joe Veleno and Aidan Thompson are on injured reserve. For Calgary, Brennan Othmann is day-to-day with an upper-body injury and Connor Zary is out with a knee injury. Kevin Bahl, Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek are on injured reserve. Shesterkin is the only goalie on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, with the over at -125 and the under at +105. The Flames’ games went over 5.5 in 43 of 82, a 52.4% rate. The Rangers’ games went over in 39 of 82, or 47.6%. Calgary’s home games averaged 5.54 goals and New York’s road games 6.29.

The average of those two rates puts the over at 50.0%. With the margin removed, the market has the over at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%. That is a 3.2-point lean to the under, below the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, the Rangers are -1.5 at +180 and the Flames +1.5 at -218. Without the margin, that is 34.3% and 65.7%. New York won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and Calgary lost by two or more in 33 of 82. Our number has Rangers -1.5 landing 34.1% of the time, a 0.1-point gap toward Flames +1.5. That is a lean on the same side and too small to matter. Our method stakes the moneyline only. One bet on this game: the Flames at +114.

Rangers at Flames, Wednesday 11 November, 7:30 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 November 2026, 16:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; New York’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 10 November 2026, 16:32 UTC.