Wild vs Canadiens Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Canadiens. With Filip Gustavsson out, our Wild vs Canadiens prediction makes Montreal a 52.8% winner at home, 4.5 points over the price, which is under our 5-point bar.

The Montreal Canadiens are -102 and the Minnesota Wild -118 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 48.3% for Montreal and 51.7% for Minnesota. The price has the visitors as a slight favourite. Our number has the home side slightly ahead, and the distance between the two is too small to stake.

How 52.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.

Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury. The source is ESPN’s injury list, with the entry dated 5 November and 19 November given as his expected return, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games in 2025-26, against Jesper Wallstedt’s 35, and in 24 of the 41 road games the method reads. In the 17 road games he did not play, the Wild went 9-4-4, a road loss rate of 47.06%. Our minimum is 10 games, and 17 clears it.

The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at Bell Centre, a 58.5% home win rate. Average 58.5% with 47.06% and Montreal is 52.8%, Minnesota 47.2%. That is 4.5 points better for Montreal than the price. The threshold is 5.

The full road season points the same way, with a smaller gap. On Minnesota’s whole 23-14-4 road record, a 43.9% road loss rate, Montreal is 51.2% and the gap is 2.9 points. Taking Gustavsson out moves the number toward Montreal. It does not move it far enough.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -102 and -118 they come to 104.6%. Taken out, the Canadiens are 48.3% and the Wild 51.7%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in our figures, and both teams have started well. The Canadiens are 11-3-3, 5-2-2 at home, and won 4-2 in Toronto on Saturday 7 November. Jacob Fowler has played 10 of their games and Jakub Dobes 7. The Wild are 12-3-4, 7-3-2 on the road, and lost 4-3 in overtime to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Wallstedt has played 16 of their games and Calvin Pickard 3.

Montreal at home, Minnesota on the road

The Canadiens at home scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.10 over 2025-26, a surplus of 0.24. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05, a surplus of 0.41. By that measure Minnesota was the better team in the halves our method reads.

The halves the method leaves out look much the same. Montreal on the road went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.56 and allowing 3.15. Minnesota at home went 23-10-8, 56.1%, scoring 3.17 and allowing 2.80. Neither team changed much between home and away, which is part of why the price sits near even.

The season around it

The two teams finished 2025-26 close together. Montreal went 48-24-10 with 106 points and a goal difference of +27, then beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Carolina. Minnesota went 46-24-12 with 104 points and a goal difference of +32, beat Dallas 4-2, then lost 4-1 to Colorado.

Both did well in close games. The Canadiens went 23-6-10 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Wild went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of 27 past 60 minutes. Montreal won by two goals or more in 25 games and lost by two or more in 18; Minnesota’s figures were 26 and 19.

They split two meetings. Montreal won 4-3 at home on Tuesday 20 January 2026, and Minnesota won 4-3 in overtime at home on Monday 2 February. The game in Montreal is in the Canadiens’ home half of our number. The game in Minnesota is in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet. The gap is 4.5 points toward the Canadiens on Minnesota’s road games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5, and 2.9 points on the full road season. Two readings of the method, and neither reaches the bar.

The line read Canadiens -102 and Wild -118 on 9 November 2026 at 17:37 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s chances have not moved since opening.

What kills the bet

Here, what makes one. At +109 or longer the Canadiens are a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at. Against the Wild at -118, Montreal becomes a bet at +102 or longer.

For the Wild to become the bet, they would have to be +137 or longer whatever the Montreal price, or +171 or longer against the Canadiens at -102. They are -118.

The rest is on the ice, and none of it is in our number. Besides Gustavsson, ESPN’s injury list has Jared Spurgeon and Brock Faber on injured reserve for Minnesota and Michael McCarron day-to-day. Montreal lists goalie Sam Montembeault, Ivan Demidov and Bryce Pickford on injured reserve, Mike Matheson out and Josh Anderson day-to-day. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. The Canadiens’ games went over 6.5 in 44 of 82, a 53.7% rate, and the Wild’s in 42 of 82, 51.2%. Montreal’s home games averaged 6.44 goals and Minnesota’s road games 6.51.

Averaged, our number has the over at 52.4%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, so we lean to the over by 4.2 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Minnesota is -1.5 at +195 and Montreal +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. The Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Canadiens lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time, a gap of 5.7 points toward Canadiens +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side our number already leans. No bet on this game.

Wild at Canadiens, Tuesday 10 November, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC.