Red Wings vs Blues Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our Red Wings vs Blues prediction: take Detroit on the moneyline. The market has St. Louis at 57.2%, and our number has the game at 50.0% each.

The Detroit Red Wings are +124 and the St. Louis Blues -148 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 42.8% for Detroit and 57.2% for St. Louis. The price has the home team as a clear favourite. Our number has no favourite at all.

How 50.0% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.

The Blues went 20-14-7 at Enterprise Center, a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Red Wings went 20-15-6 away from home, a 51.2% road loss rate once overtime and shootout losses are counted. Average 48.8% with 51.2% and St. Louis is 50.0%, Detroit 50.0%. That is 7.2 points better for Detroit than the price.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +124 and -148 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Red Wings are 42.8% and the Blues 57.2%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and so far it separates neither team. The Blues are 7-8-2, 4-2-1 at home, and lost 3-1 in Nashville on Saturday 7 November. Joel Hofer has played 12 of their games in goal and Jordan Binnington 5. The Red Wings are 7-8-3, 3-3-2 on the road, and lost 4-0 in Colorado the same night. John Gibson has played 11 of their games and Daniil Tarasov 8.

St. Louis at home, Detroit on the road

Neither half of our number belongs to a team that outscored its opponents. The Blues at home scored 2.83 a game and allowed 3.07, a deficit of 0.24. The Red Wings on the road scored 2.78 and allowed 2.95, a deficit of 0.17. On goals, Detroit’s travelling side was the slightly less bad of the two.

The halves the method leaves out: St. Louis on the road went 17-19-5, a 41.5% win rate, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.22. Detroit at home went 21-16-4, 51.2%, scoring 3.1 and allowing 3.34. Neither of those is in our number.

The season around it

Both teams missed the playoffs in 2025-26. Detroit went 41-31-10 with 92 points and a goal difference of -17. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points and was outscored by 27. Each team allowed 3.15 goals a game; Detroit scored 2.94 to St. Louis’s 2.82.

Close games split them more sharply. The Red Wings went 18-5-10 in one-goal games and won 11 of the 21 that went past regulation. The Blues went 18-9-12 in one-goal games and won only 4 of their 16 past 60 minutes. A tied game after regulation was a weak spot for St. Louis last season.

Detroit won both meetings in 2025-26, three days apart. The first, 6-4 in Detroit on Saturday 25 October 2025, is in neither half of our number. The second, a 5-2 Red Wings win in St. Louis on Tuesday 28 October 2025, is in both halves: the Blues’ home record and the Red Wings’ road record.

Pick: Red Wings +124

Bet the Red Wings on the moneyline at +124. The gap is 7.2 points toward Detroit, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Red Wings +124 and Blues -148 on 9 November 2026 at 17:37 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +120 and -142. Since the open the market has moved toward St. Louis: it gives the Blues 0.9 points more than at the open, 57.2% against 56.3%. That move makes the Detroit price slightly better, not worse.

What kills the bet

A shorter Detroit price. At +122 or longer the Red Wings are a bet whatever St. Louis is priced at; against the Blues at -148, they stay a bet down to +105.

For the Blues to become the bet, they would have to be +122 or longer whatever Detroit’s price, or +174 or longer against Detroit at +124. They are -148.

The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Gibson day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and he has started more of Detroit’s games than Tarasov this season. The list is a mention here, not a re-run: our number does not change on it. Detroit also has Dylan Larkin on injured reserve, listed for a suspension, with Albert Johansson, Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton on injured reserve. St. Louis lists Logan Mailloux, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Blues’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82, the Red Wings’ in 49 of 82. St. Louis’s home games averaged 5.9 goals, Detroit’s road games 5.73.

That is 47.6% and 59.8%, an average of 53.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%, so our number leans to the over by 0.4 points. That is nowhere near 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, St. Louis is -1.5 at +180 and Detroit +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Over the full season the Blues won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and the Red Wings lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Blues -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of 6.8 points toward Red Wings +1.5 at -218. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Red Wings at +124.

Red Wings at Blues, Tuesday 10 November, 8:00 PM ET, Enterprise Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC.