NHL
NHL · Tuesday 10 November
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Avalanche. Our number has Colorado as a bigger favourite than the market does, but only by 4.1 points, short of the 5 we bet on.
The Colorado Avalanche are -162 and the Toronto Maple Leafs +136 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 59.3% for Colorado and 40.7% for Toronto. Our number is 63.4% and 36.6%. The two agree on the side. The question is the size of the gap, and 4.1 points is under the bar.
How 36.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at Scotiabank Arena, a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road, a 29.3% road loss rate. Average the two and Toronto is 36.6%, Colorado 63.4%. Against the market’s 40.7%, that is 4.1 points toward Colorado.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +136 and -162 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Maple Leafs are 40.7% and the Avalanche 59.3%.
No absence on either injury list changes the inputs, and no goalie is on either list. Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Maple Leafs are 8-9-2, 4-6-1 at home, and lost 4-0 to the New Jersey Devils on Sunday 8 November. Sergei Bobrovsky has played 12 of their games and Anthony Stolarz 7. The Avalanche are 10-6-2, 3-5-0 on the road, and beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-0 on Saturday 7 November. Mackenzie Blackwood has played 14 of their games and Scott Wedgewood 5.
Toronto at home, Colorado on the road
Over the full season the Maple Leafs at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.25. The Avalanche on the road scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32, a surplus of 1.22. Colorado was a better team away from home than Toronto was in its own building.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Toronto on the road went 14-21-6, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.76. Colorado at home went 26-9-6, a 63.4% win rate, scoring 3.83 and allowing 2.63. Neither half is in our number.
The season around it
Colorado went 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 99. In the playoffs the Avalanche swept the Los Angeles Kings 4-0, beat the Minnesota Wild 4-1, then were swept 4-0 by the Vegas Golden Knights. Toronto went 32-36-14 with 78 points, was outscored by 46, and missed the playoffs.
Close games were even in shape. The Maple Leafs went 14-4-14 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 23 that went past regulation. The Avalanche went 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of 18 past 60 minutes. The separation is in the wider margins: Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 12. Toronto lost by two or more in 32.
The teams split two meetings in 2025-26. Toronto won 4-3 in overtime in Colorado on 12 January 2026; that game is in neither half of our number. Colorado won 4-1 in Toronto on 25 January 2026, and that one sits inside both halves.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.1 points toward the Avalanche against a threshold of 5. The market has Colorado as the right side, and our number says the price is close enough to fair.
The line read Avalanche -162 and Maple Leafs +136 on 9 November 2026 at 17:37 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s chances have not moved since opening.
What kills the pass
A longer Colorado price. Against Toronto at +136, the Avalanche become a bet at -147 or longer. At -140 or longer they are a bet whatever Toronto is priced at.
For the Maple Leafs to become the bet, they would have to be +250 or longer against Colorado at -162, or +216 or longer whatever Colorado is priced at. They are +136.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Josh Manson out with an ankle injury and Zachary L’Heureux on injured reserve for Colorado. Toronto lists Morgan Rielly, Colton Sissons and Jack Roslovic as day-to-day, and Kirill Marchenko and Miles Wood on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -115 and under -105. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82, a 56.1% rate. The Avalanche’s went over in 32 of 82, 39.0%. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals, Colorado’s road games 5.86.
Our number has the over at 47.6%. With the margin removed, the market has it at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%. That leans to the under by 3.5 points, under the threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +140 and Toronto +1.5 at -166, which is 40.0% and 60.0% without the margin. The Avalanche won by two or more in 41 of 82 games and the Maple Leafs lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Our number has Avalanche -1.5 landing 44.5% of the time, a gap of 4.5 points toward Colorado. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side, and it is under 5 points as well. No bet on this game.
Avalanche at Maple Leafs, Tuesday 10 November, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:37 UTC.