NHL
NHL · Monday 9 November
Rangers vs Oilers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number has Edmonton at 61.2% against the price’s 58.3%, a 2.9-point gap toward the Oilers that falls short of our 5-point threshold.
The Edmonton Oilers are -155 and the New York Rangers +130 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 58.3% for Edmonton and 41.7% for New York. The price and our number agree on the favourite. They differ by less than the edge we need to bet.
How 61.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, read 8 November 2026, 17:32 UTC; entry dated 11 October, 15 September 2027 given as his return date). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of the Rangers’ 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick with 25, Spencer Martin with 6 and Dylan Garand with 3. He played 24 of the 40 road games the method reads. In the 16 road games he missed, New York went 5-11-0, a 68.75% road loss rate. Sixteen games clears our minimum of 10 for a re-run, so the re-run stands.
The Oilers went 22-14-5 at Rogers Place, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. Averaged with 68.75%, that makes Edmonton 61.2% and New York 38.8%. The gap is 2.9 points toward the Oilers. Our threshold is 5.
The full road season points the other way, and that matters. The Rangers went 19-19-2 on the road, a 52.5% road loss rate, and on that number Edmonton is 53.1%: 5.2 points below the price, enough to make New York the bet. Taking Shesterkin out removes that edge. Without him the Rangers were a much weaker road team, and the price at +130 is close to what that version of them deserves.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -155 and +130 the two prices come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Oilers are 58.3% and the Rangers 41.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside our number. The Oilers are 12-3-3, 5-3-2 at home, and beat Vancouver 4-2 on Saturday 7 November; Tristan Jarry and Devon Levi have played eight games each. The Rangers are 10-7-1 but 2-5-1 on the road, and won 4-3 at Seattle the same night. Garand has played 13 of their games, Shesterkin 5 and Joonas Korpisalo 1.
Edmonton at home, New York on the road
Over the full season the Oilers at home scored 3.49 a game and allowed 3.41, a surplus of 0.08. The Rangers on the road scored 3.17 and allowed 3.12, a surplus of 0.05. On goals alone, both halves of the method sit near even.
The halves the method leaves out: Edmonton on the road went 19-16-6, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.15, a surplus of 0.24. New York at home went 14-20-7, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Rangers were a worse team in their own arena than away from it, and that half is not in our number.
The season around it
The Oilers went 41-30-11 with 93 points and a goal difference of +13, then lost a playoff series 4-2 to Anaheim. The Rangers went 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 12 and missed the playoffs.
Close games were roughly level for both. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 20 that went past regulation. New York went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of its 18 past 60 minutes. The Oilers won by two or more in 28 of 82 games; the Rangers lost by two or more in 27 of 82.
The two teams split their meetings in 2025-26. Edmonton won 2-0 in New York on 14 October 2025, a game in neither half of our number. The Rangers won 4-3 in overtime in Edmonton on 30 October 2025, a game inside the Oilers’ home half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.9 points toward Edmonton on the Rangers’ road games without Shesterkin, against a threshold of 5. The price is close to right.
The line read Oilers -155 and Rangers +130 on 8 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.
What kills the bet
A longer Edmonton price would make the Oilers the bet. At -128 or longer they are a bet whatever New York is priced at; against the Rangers at +130, they become a bet at -126 or longer. They are -155.
For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to be +196 or longer whatever Edmonton’s price, or +222 or longer against the Oilers at -155. They are +130.
The rest is on the ice. Besides Shesterkin, ESPN’s injury list has Sean Durzi, Joe Veleno and Aidan Thompson on injured reserve for New York, and Alberts Smits day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Edmonton lists Colton Dach (illness) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (head) as day-to-day, and Isaac Howard, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie on injured reserve. Shesterkin is the only goalie on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -112 and under -108. The Oilers’ games went over 6.5 in 48 of 82, a 58.5% rate; the Rangers’ games did it in 32 of 82, a 39.0% rate. Edmonton’s home games averaged 6.9 goals and New York’s road games 6.29.
Averaged, those rates put the over at 48.8%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%, so our number leans to the under by 1.7 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Edmonton is -1.5 at +164 and New York +1.5 at -198, which is 36.3% and 63.7% without the margin. On our figures Oilers -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time, a gap of 2.8 points toward Rangers +1.5. That is under the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Rangers at Oilers, Monday 9 November, 8:00 PM ET, Rogers Place. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; the Rangers’ goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 8 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.