NHL
NHL · Monday 9 November
Islanders vs Sharks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Sharks or the Islanders. Our number makes this game 50.0% each way, 4.3 points from the price and short of the 5 points we require.
The New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks is priced Islanders -130 and Sharks +110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 54.3% for New York and 45.7% for San Jose. The market makes the visitors a modest favourite. Our number makes the game a coin flip, which leans toward the Sharks, but not far enough to bet.
How 50.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Sharks went 21-14-6 at SAP Center at San Jose, a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Averaged, that puts San Jose at 50.0% and New York at 50.0%. The gap to the price is 4.3 points toward the Sharks.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +110 and -130 they come to 104.1%. Removing it leaves the Sharks at 45.7% and the Islanders at 54.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is not in the figures. San Jose is 7-11-1, 3-5-0 at home, and lost 4-3 at Dallas on Saturday 7 November. Yaroslav Askarov has played 12 of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic 7. The Islanders are 7-6-3, 3-3-1 on the road, and lost 5-4 in overtime at home to New Jersey on the same Saturday. Ilya Sorokin has played 11 of their games and Semyon Varlamov 5.
San Jose at home, New York on the road
The Sharks at home scored 3.07 a game and allowed 3.46, a deficit of 0.39. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.14. Both halves of our number come from teams that were outscored in those games.
The halves the method leaves out: San Jose on the road went 18-21-2, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.05 and allowing 3.66. New York at home went 22-17-2, 53.7%, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.98. On those halves the Islanders look stronger, and neither one is in our number.
The season around it
The Islanders went 43-34-5 with 91 points and a goal difference of -8. They scored 2.84 a game and allowed 2.94. The Sharks went 39-35-8 with 86 points and a goal difference of -41, scoring 3.06 and allowing 3.56. Both teams missed the playoffs.
New York won its close games. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. San Jose went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of 20 past 60 minutes. The difference shows up in the lopsided games: the Sharks lost by two goals or more in 30 of 82, the Islanders in 23 of 82.
The Islanders won both 2025-26 meetings. The 4-3 win on Tuesday 21 October 2025 was in New York’s arena, so it sits in neither half of our number. The 2-1 overtime win on Saturday 7 March 2026 was in San Jose, so it is inside both halves.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.3 points toward the Sharks, against a threshold of 5. At 45.7% the market has San Jose close to where our 50.0% puts them, and the price is near enough to right.
The line read Islanders -130 and Sharks +110 on 8 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s 45.7% for San Jose has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
This is a pass, so the question is what would make it a bet. The Sharks become a bet at +122 or longer whatever New York is priced at. Against the Islanders at -130, San Jose is a bet at +116 or longer.
For the Islanders to become the bet, they would have to be +122 or longer whatever San Jose is priced at, or +157 or longer against the Sharks at +110. They are -130.
On the ice, ESPN’s injury list has Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie and Alexander Romanov on injured reserve for New York, and Ryan Pulock out with an upper-body injury. San Jose lists Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser on injured reserve, all with upper-body injuries. None of it is in our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Sharks’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, the Islanders’ in 36 of 82. San Jose’s home games averaged 6.53 goals and New York’s road games 5.66.
That is 51.2% and 43.9%, an average of 47.6% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%. Our number leans to the over by 0.8 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Islanders are -1.5 at +190 and the Sharks +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Over the full season New York won by two goals or more in 16 of 82 games, and San Jose lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Islanders -1.5 lands 28.0% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 5.1 points toward Sharks +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the Sharks and never a bet. On this game, there is no bet.
Islanders at Sharks, Monday 9 November, 10:00 PM ET, SAP Center at San Jose. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 8 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.