NHL
NHL · Sunday 8 November
Penguins vs Ducks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number has Pittsburgh 2.1 points better than the price, and we need 5 before we bet.
The Anaheim Ducks are -135 and the Pittsburgh Penguins +114 at DraftKings. With the margin out, the market gives Anaheim 55.1% and Pittsburgh 44.9%. We have the Ducks at 53.0% and the Penguins at 47.0%. That small gap toward the visitors is the whole argument, and it is not enough.
How 53.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Ducks went 24-13-4 at Honda Center, a 58.5% home win rate. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road, a 47.5% road loss rate. The average of those two rates is 53.0% for Anaheim and 47.0% for Pittsburgh.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 they come to 104.2%. With that removed, Anaheim is 55.1% and Pittsburgh 44.9%, so the market is 2.1 points higher on the Ducks than we are.
Our threshold is 5 points. A 2.1-point gap sits well inside the range where the price and our number agree. Read that as the price being about right.
None of this season is in our number. The Ducks are 9-7-1 in 2026-27, 2-4-1 at home, and won 5-3 at Calgary on Friday 6 November. Lukas Dostal has played 10 of their games, Ville Husso 6 and Laurent Brossoit 3. The Penguins are 5-9-2, 1-6-1 on the road, and lost 6-2 to the Boston Bruins on Thursday 5 November. Arturs Silovs has played 11 games in goal and Sergei Murashov 5. Pittsburgh’s road form this season runs against last season’s, and our method does not weigh it.
Anaheim at home, Pittsburgh on the road
The two halves the method uses were close. Anaheim at home scored 3.54 a game and allowed 3.49, a surplus of 0.05. Pittsburgh on the road scored 3.55 and allowed 3.08, a surplus of 0.47.
The halves left out run the other way for both teams. Anaheim on the road went 19-20-2, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.12 and allowing 3.54. Pittsburgh at home went 19-13-8, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.65 and allowing 3.58. The Penguins were the better road team than home team in 2025-26, and only the road half is in our number.
The 2025-26 season
Pittsburgh finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and a goal difference of +25. They scored 3.57 a game and allowed 3.27, then lost 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Anaheim finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of -15, scoring 3.33 and allowing 3.51. The Ducks beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 in a series, then lost 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Ducks lived on close games. They went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of the 23 that went past regulation. The Penguins went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 23 past 60 minutes. Pittsburgh won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games; Anaheim lost by two or more in 27 of 82.
Anaheim won both meetings in 2025-26. The 4-3 Ducks win at Honda Center on Tuesday 14 October 2025 is in both halves of our number. The 4-3 shootout win in Pittsburgh on Tuesday 9 December 2025 is in neither.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.1 points toward the Penguins, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Ducks -135 and Penguins +114 on 7 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same -135 and +114, so the market has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
Here the question is what would make one. The Penguins become a bet at +138 or longer, whatever Anaheim is priced at. They are +114.
The Ducks become a bet at +109 or longer, whatever Pittsburgh is priced at. They are -135, a long way from it.
Both injury lists are long, and none of it is in our number. ESPN’s list has Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves on injured reserve for Pittsburgh. Anaheim lists A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore and Ryan Poehling on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -125 and under +105. The Ducks’ games went over 6.5 in 49 of 82, a 59.8% rate, and the Penguins’ in 47 of 82, 57.3%. Anaheim’s home games averaged 7.03 goals and Pittsburgh’s road games 6.63.
Averaged, our over is 58.5%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%, so our number leans to the over by 5.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the over, not a bet.
On the puck line, Anaheim is -1.5 at +170 and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. Over the full 2025-26 season the Ducks won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and the Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Ducks -1.5 lands 22.6% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 13.0 points toward Penguins +1.5 at -205. That gap points the same way as the moneyline, toward Pittsburgh. The method stakes the moneyline only, so this stays a lean, and the moneyline is a pass: no bet on this game.
Penguins at Ducks, Sunday 8 November, 8:00 PM ET, Honda Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury lists, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 7 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.