NHL
NHL · Sunday 8 November
Devils vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Devils at -135 or the Maple Leafs at +114. Our number sits 1.4 points from the price, and we need 5.
The New Jersey Devils are -135 and the Toronto Maple Leafs +114 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.1% for New Jersey and 44.9% for Toronto. Our number has the Maple Leafs at 46.3% and the Devils at 53.7%. That 1.4-point gap is the whole argument, and it is not enough.
How 46.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. The splits leave out neutral-site games.
The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at Scotiabank Arena, a 43.9% home win rate. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and Toronto is 46.3%, New Jersey 53.7%. That is 1.4 points better for Toronto than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +114 and -135 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Maple Leafs are 44.9% and the Devils 55.1%.
A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. This one differs by 1.4. The price is close to right.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is not in the figures. New Jersey is 11-5-0, 3-3-0 on the road, and beat St. Louis 5-4 in overtime on Thursday 5 November. Jake Allen has played eight of their games and Connor Hellebuyck four. Toronto is 8-7-2, 4-4-1 at home, and lost 3-2 to Utah on Tuesday 3 November. Sergei Bobrovsky has played 11 of their games and Anthony Stolarz six. None of that moves our number.
Toronto at home, New Jersey on the road
The Maple Leafs at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.25. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17, a deficit of 0.51. Neither half of our number describes a good team. New Jersey’s road record of 21-20-0 has no losses after regulation.
The halves the method leaves out: Toronto on the road went 14-21-6, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.76. New Jersey at home went 21-17-3, 51.2%, scoring 2.95 and allowing 3.02. The Devils won at the same 51.2% rate home and away. The Maple Leafs won 43.9% at home and 34.1% on the road, and that weaker half is not in our number.
The season around it
Both teams missed the playoffs in 2025-26. New Jersey went 42-37-3 with 87 points and was outscored by 24. Toronto went 32-36-14 with 78 points and was outscored by 46, allowing 3.65 goals a game.
The Devils were good in close games. They went 20-8-3 in one-goal games and won 13 of the 16 that went past regulation. Toronto went 14-4-14 in one-goal games and won 9 of its 23 past 60 minutes. The Maple Leafs lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games, the Devils in 29.
New Jersey won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. The two in Toronto split: the Devils won 5-2 on 21 October 2025 and the Maple Leafs won 4-0 on 30 December 2025. Both are inside both halves of our number. The game in New Jersey, a 4-3 Devils shootout win on 4 March 2026, is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 1.4 points toward Toronto, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Devils -135 and Maple Leafs +114 on 7 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -135 and +114, so the market has not moved.
What kills the bet
Here the question runs the other way: what price makes a bet. Toronto becomes a bet at +142 or longer whatever New Jersey is priced at; against the Devils at -135, the Maple Leafs need +147 or longer. They are +114.
For New Jersey to become the bet, they would have to be +106 or longer whatever Toronto is priced at, or +125 or longer against the Maple Leafs at +114. They are -135.
ESPN’s injury list has Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg, Marshall Rifai and Max Domi on injured reserve for Toronto. New Jersey lists Seamus Casey on injured reserve with a knee injury. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82, the Devils’ in 35 of 82. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals, New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
That is 56.1% and 42.7%, an average of 49.4% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 47.4% and the under at 52.6%, so our number leans to the over by 2.0 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, New Jersey is -1.5 at +185 and Toronto +1.5 at -225, which is 33.6% and 66.4% without the margin. Over the full season the Devils won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Maple Leafs lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Devils -1.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 33.6% priced, a gap of 0.7 points toward Maple Leafs +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and 0.7 points is no lean worth naming. No bet on this game.
Devils at Maple Leafs, Sunday 8 November, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 7 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.