NHL
NHL · Saturday 7 November
Penguins vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Penguins on the moneyline. Our number makes Pittsburgh a 58.0% winner in Los Angeles, and the price says 45.7%.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are +110 and the Los Angeles Kings -130 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 45.7% for Pittsburgh and 54.3% for Los Angeles. The price has the home team as a modest favourite. Our number has the visitors well ahead.
How 58.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Kings went 15-17-9 at Crypto.com Arena, a 36.6% home win rate. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road, a 47.5% road loss rate. Average the two and the Kings are 42.0%, the Penguins 58.0%. That is 12.3 points better for Pittsburgh than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +110 and -130 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Penguins are 45.7% and the Kings 54.3%.
The price has moved slightly toward Pittsburgh. It opened at Penguins +114 and Kings -135, which was 44.9% for the Penguins with the margin out. It now gives them 0.9 points more than at the open. The gap is still 12.3 points.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and neither team has started well. The Penguins are 5-9-2, 1-6-1 on the road, and lost 6-2 to Boston on Thursday. Arturs Silovs has played 11 of their games and Sergei Murashov five. The Kings are 5-7-2, 2-4-0 at home, and beat San Jose 7-2 on Wednesday. Darcy Kuemper has played nine of their games and Anton Forsberg six. Pittsburgh’s 1-6-1 road start is eight games, too few to describe a road team, and it sits outside the method.
Los Angeles at home, Pittsburgh on the road
Over the full season the Kings at home scored 2.63 a game and allowed 3.12, a deficit of 0.49. The Penguins on the road scored 3.55 and allowed 3.08, a surplus of 0.47. Those are the two halves our number uses, and they point the same way.
The halves the method leaves out: Los Angeles on the road went 20-10-11, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.85 and allowing 2.90. Pittsburgh at home went 19-13-8, 47.5%, scoring 3.65 and allowing 3.58. The Kings were the better team away from their own arena, and that half is not in our number. This is the one reading of last season that argues for Los Angeles, and the method does not use it.
The season around it
Over the full season the Penguins went 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25. They lost their playoff series 4-2 to Philadelphia. The Kings went 35-27-20 with 90 points and were outscored by 22, then were swept 4-0 by Colorado in the playoffs.
Los Angeles lived in close games. The Kings went 21-6-20 in one-goal games and won 13 of the 33 that went past regulation. Pittsburgh went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 23 past 60 minutes. The Penguins won by two goals or more 29 times in 82 games; the Kings did it 14 times.
The two teams split their 2025-26 meetings. Pittsburgh won 4-2 in Los Angeles on Thursday 16 October 2025, and that game is inside both halves of our number. Los Angeles won 3-2 in Pittsburgh on Sunday 9 November 2025, which is in neither half.
Pick: Penguins +110
Bet the Penguins on the moneyline at +110. The gap is 12.3 points toward Pittsburgh, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Penguins +110 and Kings -130 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +114 and -135.
What kills the bet
A shorter Pittsburgh price. At -112 or longer the Penguins are a bet whatever Los Angeles is priced at; against the Kings at -130, they stay a bet down to -176. The current +110 has plenty of room.
For the Kings to become the bet, they would have to be +170 or longer whatever the Penguins price, or +257 against Pittsburgh at +110. They are -130.
The rest is on the ice. Pittsburgh’s road start this season is poor, and none of it is in our number. ESPN’s injury list has Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves on injured reserve for Pittsburgh. Los Angeles lists Alex Turcotte, Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Fiala, Jakub Dvorak and Jan Jenik on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. The Kings’ games went over 6.5 in 31 of 82, a 37.8% rate. The Penguins’ games went over in 47 of 82, 57.3%. Los Angeles home games averaged 5.75 goals, Pittsburgh road games 6.63.
Averaged, that is 47.6% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 47.4% and the under at 52.6%, so our number leans to the over by 0.2 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Los Angeles is -1.5 at +190 and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Over the full season the Kings won by two goals or more in 14 of 82 games, and the Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Kings -1.5 lands 19.5% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 13.6 points toward Penguins +1.5 at -230. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Penguins at +110.
Penguins at Kings, Saturday 7 November, 9:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.