Red Wings vs Avalanche Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Red Wings on the moneyline. Our number makes Detroit a 42.7% winner at Ball Arena, and the price says 33.6%.

The Detroit Red Wings are +185 and the Colorado Avalanche -225 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 33.6% for Detroit and 66.4% for Colorado. Our number has Colorado at 57.3%. The 9.1-point gap between those two figures is the whole argument.

How 57.3% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, so overtime and shootout losses count as losses. Neutral-site games are left out of both rates.

The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at Ball Arena, a 63.4% home win rate. The Red Wings went 20-15-6 on the road, a 51.2% road loss rate. Averaged, that is 57.3% for Colorado and 42.7% for Detroit, 9.1 points better for the Red Wings than the price.

The rule is set before the pick: a side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. A 9.1-point gap clears it.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +185 and -225 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Red Wings are 33.6% and the Avalanche 66.4%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. Colorado is 9-6-2, 6-1-2 at home, and lost 3-2 in overtime to Nashville on Thursday 5 November. Mackenzie Blackwood has played 13 of its games and Scott Wedgewood 5. Detroit is 7-7-3, 3-2-2 on the road, and lost 2-1 to Vegas the same night. John Gibson has played 11 of its games, Daniil Tarasov 7 and Michal Postava 2.

Colorado at home, Detroit on the road

The Avalanche at home scored 3.83 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 1.2. The Red Wings on the road scored 2.78 and allowed 2.95, a deficit of 0.17. Those are the two halves in our number.

The halves the method leaves out point the other way for Colorado. The Avalanche were better away from home: 29-7-5, a 70.7% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 2.32 for a surplus of 1.22. Detroit at home went 21-16-4, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.1 and allowing 3.34. Our method uses Colorado’s weaker half, and in our view that is part of why it comes in below the price.

The season around it

Colorado went 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99. It beat Los Angeles 4-0 and Minnesota 4-1 in the playoffs, then lost 4-0 to Vegas. Detroit went 41-31-10 with 92 points, was outscored by 17 and missed the playoffs.

Close games were Detroit’s ground. The Red Wings went 18-5-10 in one-goal games and won 11 of the 21 that went past regulation. The Avalanche went 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of 18 past 60 minutes. The gap between the clubs showed in the blowouts: Colorado won by two goals or more 41 times in 82 games, Detroit 23 times.

The two teams split their 2025-26 meetings. Colorado won 5-0 in Detroit on Saturday 31 January 2026, a game in neither half of our number. Detroit won 2-0 in Colorado on Monday 2 February 2026, which sits inside both halves: an Avalanche home loss and a Red Wings road win.

Pick: Red Wings +185

Bet the Red Wings on the moneyline at +185. The gap is 9.1 points toward Detroit against a threshold of 5.

The line read Red Wings +185 and Avalanche -225 on 6 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +185 and -225, and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Detroit price. At +165 or longer the Red Wings are a bet whatever Colorado is priced at. Against Colorado at -225, they stay a bet down to +139.

For the Avalanche to become the bet, they would have to be -109 or longer, or +160 or longer against Detroit at +185. They are -225.

The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has John Gibson day-to-day with a lower-body injury; he has started 11 of Detroit’s 17 games this season, and who is in goal is not in our number. Dylan Larkin is on injured reserve with a suspension. Albert Johansson, Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are also on injured reserve for Detroit. Colorado lists Josh Manson out with an ankle injury and Zachary L’Heureux on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Avalanche’s games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, a 39.0% rate. The Red Wings’ went over in 37 of 82, 45.1%. Colorado’s home games averaged 6.46 goals, Detroit’s road games 5.73.

Averaged, the over lands 42.1% of the time. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our number leans to the under by 7.5 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. The under is a lean, not a bet.

On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +110 and Detroit +1.5 at -130, which is 45.7% and 54.3% without the margin. Over the full season the Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games, and the Red Wings lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Avalanche -1.5 lands 40.9% of the time against 45.7% priced, a gap of 4.9 points toward Red Wings +1.5. That is a lean on the same side, under the 5-point threshold. One bet on this game: the Red Wings at +185.

Red Wings at Avalanche, Saturday 7 November, 9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.