NHL
NHL · Sunday 8 November
Flyers vs Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Flames or the Flyers. Our number makes this game a coin flip, and the price is 1.7 points off it, short of the 5 we need.
The Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames is priced Flyers -118, Flames -102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.7% for Philadelphia and 48.3% for Calgary. Our number is 50.0% each. The gap is 1.7 points toward Calgary, and our threshold for a bet is 5.
How 50.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Flames went 23-13-5 at Scotiabank Saddledome, a 56.1% home win rate. The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road, a 43.9% road loss rate. Averaged, Calgary is 50.0% and Philadelphia 50.0%. The price has Calgary at 48.3%, so the Flames are 1.7 points better on our number than on the board.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -118 and -102 the two come to 104.6%. Taken out, the Flyers are 51.7% and the Flames 48.3%. That is the price we measure against.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and both teams have started poorly. Calgary is 7-9-1, 5-4-0 at home, and lost 5-3 to Anaheim on Friday 6 November. Dustin Wolf has played 10 of their games and Devin Cooley 7. Philadelphia is 4-10-4, 1-6-1 on the road, and lost 3-2 at the New York Rangers on Thursday 5 November. Dan Vladar and Joseph Woll have played 9 games each.
Calgary at home, Philadelphia on the road
The Flames at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.61, a surplus of 0.32. The Flyers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.17, a surplus of 0.22. Both halves of our number come from teams that were slightly better than their opponents in these venues.
The halves the method leaves out point in opposite directions. Calgary on the road went 11-26-4, a 26.8% win rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71. Philadelphia at home went 20-13-8, 48.8%, scoring 2.71 and allowing 2.76. The Flyers were better away from home than in their own arena, which is part of why the road half here is strong.
The season around it
The Flyers went 43-27-12 with 98 points and a goal difference of +7. They won a playoff series 4-2 against Pittsburgh, then lost 4-0 to Carolina. Calgary went 34-39-9 with 77 points, a goal difference of -47, and missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia went 17-5-12 in one-goal games and won 16 of the 28 that went past regulation. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Flames lost by two goals or more in 33 of 82 games; the Flyers won by two or more in 26 of 82.
Calgary won both 2025-26 meetings. The first, 2-1 on Sunday 2 November 2025, was in Philadelphia: a Flyers home game and a Flames road game, so it is in neither half of our number. The second, 5-1 on Wednesday 31 December 2025, was in Calgary, and it sits in both halves. Two games is not a sample, and it does not move the call.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.7 points toward the Flames against a threshold of 5. The method says the price is close to right: the market has the Flyers as a small favourite on a game our number calls even.
The line read Flyers -118 and Flames -102 on 7 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -118 and -102, so there has been no move since opening.
What kills the bet
A longer price on either side. The Flames become a bet at +122 or longer whatever the Flyers are priced at; against Philadelphia at -118, they become a bet at +126 or longer. They are -102.
The Flyers become a bet at +122 or longer whatever Calgary is priced at; against Calgary at -102, at +142 or longer. They are -118. Neither number is close.
ESPN’s injury list, read 7 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, has Kevin Bahl and Brennan Othmann day-to-day for Calgary, Connor Zary out with a knee injury, and Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek on injured reserve. Philadelphia lists Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Flames’ games went over 5.5 in 43 of 82, a 52.4% rate. The Flyers’ went over in 44 of 82, 53.7%. Calgary’s home games averaged 5.54 goals, Philadelphia’s road games 6.56.
Averaged, our over is 53.0%. With the margin out, the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%. The gap is 0.2 points toward the under. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Flyers are -1.5 at +200 and the Flames +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. Our number has Flyers -1.5 landing 36.0% of the time, from Philadelphia’s 26 wins by two or more and Calgary’s 33 losses by two or more, each in 82 games. That is a 4.0-point lean toward Flyers -1.5, under the threshold of 5, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Flyers at Flames, Sunday 8 November, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 7 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.