NHL
NHL · Wednesday 11 November
Penguins vs Sharks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Penguins or the Sharks. Our number makes San Jose a 49.4% winner at home against the price’s 46.8%, a gap of 2.6 points, and our bar is 5.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are -125 and the San Jose Sharks +105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 53.2% for Pittsburgh and 46.8% for San Jose. The price makes the visitors a small favourite. Our number has the game as close to even, and the price is too close to it to bet.
How 49.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Sharks went 21-14-6 at SAP Center at San Jose, a 51.2% home win rate. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road, a 47.5% road loss rate. Average the two and San Jose is 49.4%, Pittsburgh 50.6%. That is 2.6 points better for the Sharks than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At +105 and -125 the two come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Sharks are 46.8% and the Penguins 53.2%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and it has started badly for both teams. The Sharks are 8-11-1, 4-5-0 at home, and beat the New York Islanders 3-2 in a shootout on Monday 9 November. Yaroslav Askarov has played 13 of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic 7. The Penguins are 6-10-2, 2-7-1 on the road, and lost 5-2 at Anaheim on Sunday 8 November. Arturs Silovs has played 12 of their games and Sergei Murashov 6.
San Jose at home, Pittsburgh on the road
Over the full season the Sharks at home scored 3.07 a game and allowed 3.46, a deficit of 0.39. The Penguins on the road scored 3.55 and allowed 3.08, a surplus of 0.47. On goals alone, the half the method uses favours Pittsburgh.
The halves the method leaves out: San Jose on the road went 18-21-2, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.05 and allowing 3.66. Pittsburgh at home went 19-13-8, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.65 and allowing 3.58. The Penguins were the better team away from their own arena last season, and that is the half in our number.
The season around it
Pittsburgh finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25. It lost 2-4 to the Philadelphia Flyers in the playoffs. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points, was outscored by 41, and missed the playoffs.
The Sharks lived on one-goal games. They went 22-5-8 in them and won 12 of the 20 that went past regulation. The Penguins went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 23 past 60 minutes. Blowouts went the other way: San Jose lost by two goals or more 30 times in 82 games, Pittsburgh 18 times.
The two teams split their 2025-26 games. Pittsburgh won 3-0 in San Jose on Saturday 18 October 2025; that game is inside both halves of our number. San Jose won 6-5 in overtime in Pittsburgh on Saturday 13 December 2025; that one is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.6 points toward the Sharks, against a threshold of 5. Below 5 we treat the difference as noise in the price, and 2.6 is about half the bar.
The line read Penguins -125 and Sharks +105 on 10 November 2026 at 16:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -125 and +105, so the market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A longer San Jose price. At +125 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Pittsburgh is priced at. They are +105.
For the Penguins to become the bet, they would have to be +120 or longer. They are -125.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Bryan Rust, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ryan Graves and Elmer Soderblom on injured reserve for Pittsburgh, with Ville Koivunen day-to-day with a lower-body injury. San Jose lists Igor Chernyshov, Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser on injured reserve, all with upper-body injuries. Askarov and Nedeljkovic, the two goalies who have played for San Jose this season, are not on it. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -135 and under +114. The Sharks’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, the Penguins’ in 47 of 82. San Jose’s home games averaged 6.53 goals, Pittsburgh’s road games 6.63.
That is 51.2% and 57.3%, an average of 54.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%, so our number leans to the under by 0.9 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Pittsburgh is -1.5 at +190 and San Jose +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Last season the Penguins won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Penguins -1.5 lands 36.0% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 2.9 points. That is under the bar, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Penguins at Sharks, Wednesday 11 November, 10:00 PM ET, SAP Center at San Jose. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 November 2026, 16:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 10 November 2026, 16:32 UTC.