NHL
NHL · Thursday 12 November
Blues vs Mammoth Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Mammoth. Our number has Utah one point better than the price, and a bet needs five.
The St. Louis Blues are +114 and the Utah Mammoth -135 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.1% for Utah and 44.9% for St. Louis. Our Blues vs Mammoth prediction puts the Mammoth at 56.1%. The gap is 1.0 point toward Utah, and the price is about right.
How 56.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and overtime and shootout losses count as losses. Games at a neutral site are left out of both splits.
The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at Delta Center, a 53.7% home win rate. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road, a 58.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Utah is 56.1%, St. Louis 43.9%. Against the price that is 1.0 point toward the Mammoth, and our threshold for a bet is 5.0.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Mammoth are 55.1% and the Blues 44.9%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Mammoth are 10-7-1, 4-2-0 at home, and lost 4-2 in Ottawa on Saturday 7 November. Karel Vejmelka has appeared in 13 of their games and Sebastian Cossa in 7. The Blues are 8-8-2, 3-6-1 on the road, and beat Detroit 3-2 on Tuesday 10 November. Joel Hofer has appeared in 13 of their games and Jordan Binnington in 5.
Utah at home, St. Louis on the road
At home last season the Mammoth scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.02, a surplus of 0.32. The Blues on the road scored 2.80 and allowed 3.22, a deficit of 0.42. Those two halves are the ones in our number.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Utah on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.20 and allowing 2.83, a surplus of 0.37. St. Louis at home went 20-14-7, 48.8%, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.07, a deficit of 0.24. The Mammoth were slightly better away from Delta Center by goal surplus. That half is not in our number.
The 2025-26 season
Utah went 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of +28, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Vegas Golden Knights. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points and a goal difference of -27, and missed the playoffs. The points table has these teams closer than the goals do.
Extra time is where the Blues’ record held up and where it leaked. They went 18-9-12 in one-goal games but won only 4 of their 16 games that went past regulation. Utah went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Mammoth won by two goals or more 27 times and lost by two or more 22 times. The Blues won by two or more 19 times and lost by two or more 24 times.
They split four games in 2025-26. In St. Louis, Utah won 7-4 on Thursday 23 October and the Blues won 1-0 on Saturday 29 November; those two are in neither half of our number. In Utah, the Mammoth won 4-2 on Friday 9 January and the Blues won 5-3 on Thursday 16 April. Both of those sit inside both halves of the method.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 1.0 point toward the Mammoth against a threshold of 5.0. The price is fair, within one point of our number.
The line read Mammoth -135 and Blues +114 on 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s 55.1% for Utah has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A longer Utah price makes this a bet. At -104 or longer the Mammoth are a bet whatever St. Louis is priced at. Against the Blues at +114, Utah becomes a bet at +105 or longer. It is -135.
For the Blues to become the bet, they would have to be +157 or longer whatever Utah is priced at, or +173 or longer against the Mammoth at -135. They are +114.
ESPN’s injury list has Dylan Guenther day-to-day (undisclosed) and Nate Schmidt out (upper body) for Utah, with Kailer Yamamoto, John Marino and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. St. Louis lists Torey Krug, Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. None of these changes the method. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Mammoth’s games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82, the Blues’ in 33 of 82. Utah’s home games averaged 6.36 goals and St. Louis’s road games 6.02.
That is 46.3% and 40.2%, an average of 43.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 45.7% and the under at 54.3%. Our number leans to the under by 2.4 points, under the 5.0 threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +180 and St. Louis +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Last season the Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games and the Blues lost by two or more in 24 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time, a gap of 3.2 points. That is below the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only. Nothing to bet on this game at these prices.
Blues at Mammoth, Thursday 12 November, 9:00 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.