NHL
NHL · Thursday 12 November
Capitals vs Devils Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Capitals on the moneyline. Our number makes Washington a 46.3% winner in Newark, and the price says 40.7%.
The Washington Capitals are +136 and the New Jersey Devils -162 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 40.7% for Washington and 59.3% for New Jersey. The price makes the Devils a clear home favourite. Our number has this game much closer, with New Jersey still ahead.
How 53.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both rates.
The Devils went 21-17-3 at Prudential Center, a 51.2% home win rate. The Capitals went 18-19-4 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate. Average the two and the Devils are 53.7%, the Capitals 46.3%. That is 5.6 points better for Washington than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Devils are 59.3% and the Capitals 40.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Devils are 13-6-0 and 8-2-0 at home, and lost 4-2 at Winnipeg on Tuesday 10 November. Jake Allen has played 10 of their games and Connor Hellebuyck 5. The Capitals are 10-6-0 and 3-2-0 on the road, and won 3-2 in overtime at Ottawa on Tuesday 10 November. Logan Thompson has played 12 of their games and Charlie Lindgren 5. New Jersey’s home start is the strongest point against this pick, and it sits outside our method.
New Jersey at home, Washington on the road
The Devils at home scored 2.95 a game and allowed 3.02 in 2025-26, a deficit of 0.07. The Capitals on the road scored 3.02 and allowed 3.29, a deficit of 0.27. Neither half of our number is a strong team. The method weighs them as two weak halves, and the price treats New Jersey’s half as much the better one.
The halves the method leaves out: Washington at home went 25-11-5, a 61.0% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 2.66, a surplus of 0.73. New Jersey on the road went 21-20-0, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 2.66 and allowing 3.17, a deficit of 0.51. The Capitals were the better team at home, and that half is not in our number.
Over the full season Washington finished 43-30-9 with 95 points and outscored opponents by 19. New Jersey went 42-37-3 with 87 points and was outscored by 24. Both missed the playoffs.
Close games went the other way. The Devils went 20-8-3 in one-goal games and won 13 of the 16 that went past regulation. The Capitals went 13-8-9 in one-goal games and won 6 of their 15 past 60 minutes. Washington won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 22. New Jersey won by two or more in 22 and lost by two or more in 29.
The four meetings in 2025-26 were split. Each team won once in each arena. The Devils won 3-2 in a shootout in Washington on 15 November 2025 and 7-3 at home on 2 April 2026. The Capitals won 4-3 in overtime in Newark on 27 December 2025 and 2-1 at home on 20 March 2026. The two games in New Jersey are in both halves of our number. The two in Washington are in neither.
Pick: Capitals +136
Bet the Capitals on the moneyline at +136. The gap is 5.6 points toward Washington, against a threshold of 5. That is a thin edge, and it clears the rule by 0.6.
The line read Capitals +136 and Devils -162 on 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +130 and -155. Since opening, the market gives the Devils 1.0 points more, 59.3% against 58.3%.
What kills the bet
A shorter Washington price. Against New Jersey at -162, the Capitals stay a bet down to +130, the opening price. At +142 or longer they are a bet whatever the Devils are priced at. A move back to the open, or any further move toward New Jersey, ends the bet.
For the Devils to become the bet, they would have to be +106 or longer. They are -162.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais and Patrick Thomas on injured reserve for Washington. New Jersey lists Anthony Mantha out with a neck injury, Seamus Casey on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Johnathan Kovacevic day-to-day. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Devils’ games went over 5.5 in 40 of 82, the Capitals’ in 44 of 82. New Jersey’s home games averaged 5.97 goals, Washington’s road games 6.31.
That is 48.8% and 53.7%, an average of 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%, so our number leans to the under by 3.9 points. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, New Jersey is -1.5 at +142 and Washington +1.5 at -170, which is 39.6% and 60.4% without the margin. Over the full season the Devils won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Capitals lost by two or more in 22 of 82. On that, Devils -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time against 39.6% priced, a gap of 12.8 points toward Capitals +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Capitals at +136.
Capitals at Devils, Thursday 12 November, 7:00 PM ET, Prudential Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.