NHL
NHL · Thursday 12 November
Jets vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number has Dallas winning 62.2% of the time, the price says 63.1%, and a 0.9-point gap is not an edge.
The Dallas Stars are -192 and the Winnipeg Jets +160 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 63.1% for Dallas and 36.9% for Winnipeg. Our figures are 62.2% and 37.8%. The market and the method agree to within a point, so the price is right.
How 62.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate. The Jets went 16-19-6 on the road, a 61.0% road loss rate. Average the two and Dallas is 62.2%, Winnipeg 37.8%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -192 and +160 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Stars are 63.1% and the Jets 36.9%. Our number sits 0.9 points toward Winnipeg. We bet a side only when the gap is 5 points or more.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Stars are 10-5-2 and 6-4-0 at home, and beat San Jose 4-3 on Saturday 7 November. Jake Oettinger has played 13 of their games and Casey DeSmith 4. The Jets are 8-8-3 and 3-4-2 on the road, and beat New Jersey 4-2 on Tuesday 10 November. Stuart Skinner has played 13 of their games, Nico Daws 7 and Clay Stevenson 5.
Dallas at home, Winnipeg on the road
The Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Jets on the road scored 2.61 and allowed 3.24, a deficit of 0.63. These are the two halves the method uses, and both point the same way as the price.
The halves the method leaves out: Dallas on the road went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78. Winnipeg at home went 19-16-6, 46.3%, scoring 3.02 and allowing 3.10. The Stars were slightly better away from home by goal surplus. That half is not in our number.
The season around it
Dallas went 50-20-12 with 112 points and a goal difference of +53, scoring 3.4 a game and allowing 2.76. The Stars lost their playoff series to the Minnesota Wild, 4-2. Winnipeg went 35-35-12 with 82 points, a goal difference of -29, and missed the playoffs.
Close games went the same way. The Stars were 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Jets were 16-12-12 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 19 past 60 minutes. Dallas won by two goals or more 22 times and lost by two or more 14 times. Winnipeg won by two or more 19 times and lost by two or more 23 times.
Dallas won all four meetings in 2025-26. In Winnipeg the Stars won 5-4 on 9 October 2025 and 4-3 on 9 December 2025. Those games are in neither half of our number. In Dallas they won 4-3 in overtime on 2 February 2026 and 3-0 on 2 April 2026. Those two are in both halves: the Stars’ home record and the Jets’ road record.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.9 points toward the Jets, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Stars -192 and Jets +160 on 11 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -205 and +170, which gave Dallas 64.5% and Winnipeg 35.5% with the margin out. Since opening the market has moved toward the Jets by 1.4 points, and that move took most of the small gap away.
What kills the bet
Price is the only thing that makes this a bet. The Stars become a bet at -133 or longer whatever Winnipeg is priced at, or at -106 or longer against the Jets at +160. They are -192.
For the Jets, the price has to drift the other way. Winnipeg is a bet at +205 or longer whatever Dallas is priced at, or at +211 or longer against the Stars at -192. They are +160.
Neither injury list changes the call. ESPN’s list has Miro Heiskanen day-to-day with an upper-body injury for Dallas, and Kyle Capobianco, Oskar Back, Matt Duchene and Luke Krys on injured reserve. Winnipeg lists Elias Salomonsson, Vladislav Namestnikov and Nick Bjugstad on injured reserve. No goalie appears on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Jets’ in 47 of 82. Dallas’s home games averaged 6.02 goals, Winnipeg’s road games 5.85.
That is 53.7% and 57.3%, an average of 55.5% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%. Our number leans over by 2.2 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at +124 and Winnipeg +1.5 at -148, which is 42.8% and 57.2% without the margin. Over the full season the Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Jets lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 42.8% priced, a gap of 15.4 points toward Jets +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the Jets side, the same side the moneyline tilts by 0.9, and not a bet. On this game the call is no bet.
Jets at Stars, Thursday 12 November, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.