Lightning vs Avalanche Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Avalanche -125 or the Lightning +105. Our number is 52.4% for Colorado and the price is 53.2%, a gap of 0.8 points against a threshold of 5.

DraftKings has the Colorado Avalanche at -125 and the Tampa Bay Lightning at +105 (read 22 October 2026, 20:39 UTC, via ESPN). Both prices opened where they are now. The two prices add to 104.3%. With that margin out, the market gives Colorado 53.2% and Tampa Bay 46.8%.

How 52.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at neutral sites are left out.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. A fair pair would add to exactly 100%.

The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at Ball Arena, a 63.4% home win rate. The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average 63.4% with 41.5% and Colorado is 52.4%, Tampa Bay 47.6%. That is 0.8 points better for the Lightning than the price. A side needs 5 points to be a bet, so neither side is.

None of the inputs come from this season. Colorado is 5-4-1, 3-1-0… no wait, 3-1-1 at home, and lost 4-3 at the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday 20 October. Mackenzie Blackwood has played seven of their games and Scott Wedgewood three. Tampa Bay is 7-2-0, 2-2-0 on the road, and won 6-2 at the Vegas Golden Knights on the same night. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played seven of their games and Dennis Hildeby two. Neither goalie situation changes our number, and the injury lists below name no goalie.

Colorado at home, Tampa Bay on the road

At Ball Arena last season the Avalanche scored 3.83 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 1.2 goals. The Lightning on the road scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.9. Those are two strong halves meeting, and the closeness of our number reflects it.

The halves the method leaves out cut the other way. Colorado on the road went 29-7-5, a 70.7% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 2.32. Tampa Bay at home went 25-14-1, 62.5%, scoring 3.27 and allowing 2.75. The Avalanche were better away from home than at it, and that half is not in our number.

The season around it

Colorado finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99. Tampa Bay finished 50-26-6 with 106 points and +59. The Avalanche swept the Los Angeles Kings 4-0, beat the Minnesota Wild 4-1, then lost 0-4 to Vegas. The Lightning lost a seven-game series 3-4 to the Montreal Canadiens.

Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 12. Tampa Bay won by two or more in 35 and lost by two or more in 16. In one-goal games Colorado went 14-4-11 and Tampa Bay 15-10-6. Past regulation, Colorado won 7 of 18 and Tampa Bay won 10 of 16.

The two games between them in 2025-26 split by arena. Colorado won 3-2 at home on 4 November 2025, a game that sits inside both halves of our number. Tampa Bay won 4-2 at home on 6 January 2026, which sits in neither.

Pick: No bet

Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 0.8 points toward the Lightning against a threshold of 5, and the price has not moved since it opened at -125 and +105.

What kills the bet

A longer price on either side. The Avalanche become a bet at +111 or longer whatever Tampa Bay is priced at, and at +128 or longer against the Lightning at +105. The Lightning become a bet at +135 or longer whatever Colorado is priced at, and at +143 or longer against the Avalanche at -125. Neither is close to the current board.

The rest is the lineup. ESPN’s list (read 22 October 2026, 20:39 UTC) has Nicolas Roy and Zachary L’Heureux out for Colorado, and Georgii Merkulov on injured reserve. Tampa Bay has Anthony Cirelli day-to-day and Yanni Gourde on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. Colorado’s games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, 39.0%. Tampa Bay’s went over in 38 of 82, 46.3%. Colorado’s home games averaged 6.46 goals and Tampa Bay’s road games 6.56.

Our number for the over is 42.7%. With the margin removed the market prices it at 47.4% and the under at 52.6%, so we lean to the under by 4.7 points. The threshold is 5, so pass on the total.

On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +195 and Tampa Bay +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. The Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games, and the Lightning lost by two or more in 16 of 82. Averaged, Colorado covers -1.5 34.8% of the time against 32.5% priced, a gap of 2.3 points toward Avalanche -1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean and not a bet. The call on this game is no bet.

*Lightning at Avalanche, Friday 23 October, 9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:39 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records, goalie appearances and injury list: ESPN game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:39 UTC.*