NHL
NHL · Sunday 25 October
Avalanche vs Predators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Predators on the moneyline. Our number makes Nashville a 39.6% winner at home, and the price says 33.1%.
The Nashville Predators are +190 and the Colorado Avalanche -230 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 33.1% for Nashville and 66.9% for Colorado. Our number gives the Predators 39.6% and the Avalanche 60.4%. The 6.5-point gap toward Nashville is the whole argument.
How 39.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both rates.
The Predators went 20-17-3 at Bridgestone Arena, a 50.0% home win rate. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road, a 29.3% road loss rate. The average of 50.0% and 29.3% is 39.6% for Nashville, which leaves 60.4% for Colorado.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At +190 and -230 the two come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Predators are 33.1% and the Avalanche 66.9%. A side is a bet when our figure and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. Here they differ by 6.5.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. Nashville is 3-3-3, 2-2-1 at home, and lost 6-0 at Boston on Thursday 22 October. Juuse Saros has played seven of their games and Justus Annunen one. Colorado is 6-4-1, 2-3-0 on the road, and beat Tampa Bay 6-3 on Friday 23 October. Mackenzie Blackwood has played eight of their games and Scott Wedgewood three.
Nashville at home, Colorado on the road
The Predators at home scored 3.12 a game and allowed 3.27, a deficit of 0.15. The Avalanche on the road scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32, a surplus of 1.22. On goals alone this half favours Colorado heavily. The method reads results, and 29.3% of Colorado’s road games still ended as losses.
The halves the method leaves out: Colorado at home went 26-9-6, a 63.4% win rate, scoring 3.83 and allowing 2.63. Nashville on the road went 17-16-7, 42.5%, scoring 3.00 and allowing 3.33. The Avalanche won at a higher rate away from home than in their own arena, so the road half in our number is the stronger of their two.
The season around it
Over the full season Colorado went 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99. In the playoffs they swept Los Angeles 4-0, beat Minnesota 4-1, then were swept 0-4 by Vegas. Nashville went 38-34-10 with 86 points, a goal difference of -22, and missed the playoffs.
Close games went Nashville’s way more often. The Predators were 20-8-10 in one-goal games and won 10 of the 20 that went past regulation. The Avalanche were 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 18 past 60 minutes. Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 12.
The teams split four games in 2025-26. In Nashville, Colorado won 3-0 on 22 November 2025 and the Predators won 4-3 in a shootout on 9 December. Both are inside both halves of our number. In Denver, Colorado won 4-2 on 13 December and Nashville won 7-3 on 16 January 2026; those two are in neither half.
Pick: Predators +190
Bet the Predators on the moneyline at +190. The gap is 6.5 points toward Nashville against a threshold of 5.
The line read Predators +190 and Avalanche -230 on 24 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +180 and -218. Since opening the market has moved toward Colorado: it gives the Avalanche 1.2 points more than at the open, 66.9% against 65.7%.
What kills the bet
A shorter Nashville price. At +189 or longer the Predators are a bet whatever Colorado is priced at, and +190 is one step above that line. Against Colorado at -230, Nashville stays a bet down to +171.
For the Avalanche to become the bet, they would have to be -124 or longer against any Nashville price, or +133 or longer against the Predators at +190. They are -230.
ESPN’s game page lists Nicolas Roy as day-to-day with a lower-body injury and Zachary L’Heureux on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, both for Colorado. Nashville has no one listed. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -118 and under -102. The Predators’ games went over 6.5 in 35 of 82, a 42.7% rate, and the Avalanche’s in 32 of 82, 39.0%. Nashville’s home games averaged 6.39 goals and Colorado’s road games 5.86.
The average of the two rates is 40.9% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.7% and the under at 48.3%, so our number leans to the under by 10.9 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at -105 and Nashville +1.5 at -115, which is 48.9% and 51.1% without the margin. The Avalanche won by two or more in 41 of 82 games and the Predators lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Avalanche -1.5 lands 40.9% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 8.1 points toward Predators +1.5. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Predators at +190.
Avalanche at Predators, Sunday 25 October, 8:00 PM ET, Bridgestone Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.