NHL
NHL · Wednesday 28 October
Devils vs Avalanche Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Devils at +154. Our number makes New Jersey a 43.9% winner at Ball Arena, and the price says 37.8%.
The New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche is priced Avalanche -185, Devils +154 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 62.2% for Colorado and 37.8% for New Jersey. Our number has Colorado at 56.1%. The 6.1-point gap toward the Devils is the whole argument.
How 56.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at Ball Arena, a 63.4% home win rate. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average puts Colorado at 56.1% and New Jersey at 43.9%. That is 6.1 points better for the Devils than the price, against a threshold of 5.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -185 and +154 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Avalanche are 62.2% and the Devils 37.8%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. Colorado is 6-5-1, 4-1-1 at home, and lost 6-2 at Nashville on Sunday 25 October. Mackenzie Blackwood has played eight of their games and Scott Wedgewood four. New Jersey is 7-4-0, 1-2-0 on the road, and beat Los Angeles 3-1 on Saturday 24 October. Jake Allen has played seven.
Colorado at home, New Jersey on the road
The halves the method uses: the Avalanche at home scored 3.83 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 1.2. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17, a deficit of 0.51.
The halves it leaves out cut against our side. Colorado went 29-7-5 on the road, a 70.7% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 2.32. That is a better team than the one at Ball Arena, and our number uses the weaker half. New Jersey went 21-17-3 at home, a 51.2% win rate, the same rate as on the road. In our view the venue split is the right measure for a game played in one building, and it is the one we use.
Over the full season these teams were far apart. Colorado went 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99, swept Los Angeles 4-0, beat Minnesota 4-1, then was swept 4-0 by Vegas. New Jersey went 42-37-3 with 87 points, a goal difference of -24, and missed the playoffs.
Close games favoured New Jersey. The Devils went 20-8-3 in one-goal games and won 13 of the 16 that went past regulation. The Avalanche went 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of 18 past 60 minutes. Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games; New Jersey lost by two or more in 29 of 82.
The two teams met twice in 2025-26. The Devils won 4-3 in overtime at home on Sunday 26 October 2025; that game is in neither half of our number. The Avalanche won 8-4 at Ball Arena on Tuesday 28 October 2025, and that game is in both halves.
Pick: Devils +154
Bet the Devils on the moneyline at +154. The gap is 6.1 points toward New Jersey, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Devils +154 and Avalanche -185 on 27 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +150 and -180. Since the open the market gives Colorado 0.6 points more, 62.2% against 61.6%.
What kills the bet
A shorter New Jersey price. At +157 or longer the Devils are a bet whatever Colorado is priced at. Against Colorado at -185, they stay a bet down to +142. The current +154 is a bet because of the -185 on the other side.
For the Avalanche to become the bet, they would have to be -104 or longer whatever the Devils’ price, or +143 or longer against New Jersey at +154. They are -185.
ESPN’s injury list has Nicolas Roy day-to-day with a lower-body injury and Zachary L’Heureux on injured reserve with an upper-body injury for Colorado. New Jersey lists Seamus Casey on injured reserve with a knee injury. Neither list carries a goalie, so the method stands as run. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. Colorado’s games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, New Jersey’s in 35 of 82. Colorado’s home games averaged 6.46 goals, New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
That is 39.0% and 42.7%, an average of 40.9% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 47.8% and the under at 52.2%, so our number leans to the under by 7.0 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. Lean under, no bet.
On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +130 and New Jersey +1.5 at -155, which is 41.7% and 58.3% without the margin. Colorado won by two or more in 41 of 82 and New Jersey lost by two or more in 29 of 82, which puts Avalanche -1.5 at 42.7%. That is a 1.0-point gap toward Colorado, a fifth of the threshold, and it says nothing. One bet on this game: the Devils at +154.
Devils at Avalanche, Wednesday 28 October, 9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.