Wild vs Mammoth Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Wild or the Mammoth. With Filip Gustavsson out, our number makes Minnesota a 49.6% winner at Delta Center. The price already says 46.8%, a 2.8-point gap that falls short of our 5-point threshold.

The Utah Mammoth are -125 and the Minnesota Wild +105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 53.2% for Utah and 46.8% for Minnesota. Our number is 50.4% for Utah and 49.6% for Minnesota. The market and the method agree on a close game, and that agreement is the whole case for passing.

How 50.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.

Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury (ESPN injury list, read 26 October 2026, 19:24 UTC; entry dated 18 October, 19 November 2026 given as his return date). When a team’s starting goalie is out, the method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games last season, ahead of Jesper Wallstedt’s 35, and in 24 of the 41 road games the method reads. In the 17 road games he did not play, the Wild went 9-4-4, a 47.06% road loss rate. Our minimum for a re-run in the NHL is 10 games. Seventeen clears it.

The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at Delta Center, a 53.7% home win rate. Average 53.7% with 47.06% and Utah is 50.4%, Minnesota 49.6%. Against the price, that is 2.8 points toward the Wild.

The full road season points the same way and also falls short. The Wild went 23-14-4 away from home, a 43.9% road loss rate. On that figure Utah is 48.8% against a market 53.2%, a gap of 4.4 points toward Minnesota. Taking Gustavsson out makes the Wild weaker on the road, and the gap narrower.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, Utah is 53.2% and Minnesota 46.8%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Mammoth are 8-4-0, 4-1-0 at home, and beat Tampa Bay 5-4 in overtime on Saturday 24 October. Karel Vejmelka has played 10 of their games and Sebastian Cossa four. The Wild are 8-3-2, 4-3-2 on the road, and won 4-2 in Vancouver on Sunday 25 October. Wallstedt has played 11 of their games and Calvin Pickard two.

Utah at home, Minnesota on the road

At home last season the Mammoth scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.02, a surplus of 0.32. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05, a surplus of 0.41. Both halves are near even, which is why our number sits near 50%.

The halves the method leaves out: Utah on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.83. Minnesota at home went 23-10-8, 56.1%, scoring 3.17 and allowing 2.8. Utah was barely different away from Delta Center, so leaving that half out costs the method little here.

Over the full season Minnesota went 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32, then beat Dallas 4-2 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Colorado. Utah went 43-33-6 with 92 points, outscored opponents by 28, and lost its playoff series to Vegas 4-2.

The Wild went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of the 27 that went past regulation. Utah went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of its 16 past 60 minutes. Minnesota lost by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games; Utah won by two or more in 27 of 82.

The Mammoth won the first two meetings in 2025-26: 6-2 in Minnesota on 25 October 2025 and 5-2 in Utah on 27 February 2026. The Wild won the third 5-0 at home on 10 March. Only the 27 February game sits inside our number, in Utah’s home half and in Minnesota’s full-season road half. The two games in Minnesota are in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.8 points toward Minnesota on the Wild’s road games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5, and 4.4 on the full road season. Neither reading clears the rule.

The line read Mammoth -125 and Wild +105 on 26 October 2026 at 19:26 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -130 and +110. Since the open the market gives the Wild 1.0 point more, 46.8% against 45.7%, which moved the price toward our number and away from a bet.

What kills the bet

A longer Minnesota price makes the Wild a bet. At +124 or longer they are a bet whatever Utah is priced at. They are +105.

For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +121 or longer whatever Minnesota is priced at, or +147 or longer against the Wild at +105. They are -125.

Besides Gustavsson, ESPN’s injury list has Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno and Brock Faber on injured reserve for Minnesota. Utah lists John Marino as out with an upper-body injury, and Michael Carcone and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. No other goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. The Mammoth’s games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82, the Wild’s in 42 of 82. Utah’s home games averaged 6.36 goals, Minnesota’s road games 6.51.

That is 46.3% and 51.2%, an average of 48.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, so our number leans to the over by 0.5 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +190 and Minnesota +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Utah won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, and Minnesota lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 28.0% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 5.1 points toward Wild +1.5 at -230. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side as the moneyline gap, never a bet of its own. The call on this game is no bet.

Wild at Mammoth, Tuesday 27 October, 9:00 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 26 October 2026, 19:26 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Minnesota’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026, 19:24 UTC.