NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyMTL+1.5U 6.5-102STL-1.5O 6.5-118
NHL · Tuesday 27 October
Canadiens vs Blues Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Canadiens on the moneyline. Our number makes Montreal a 54.9% winner in St. Louis, and the price makes them 48.3%.
The Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues is priced close to even: Canadiens -102 and Blues -118 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.7% for St. Louis and 48.3% for Montreal. The price leans slightly to the home side. Our number leans the other way, and by more.
How 54.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at neutral sites are left out. A side is a bet when our chance and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Blues went 20-14-7 at Enterprise Center, a 48.8% home win rate. The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and St. Louis is 45.1%, Montreal 54.9%. That is 6.6 points better for the Canadiens than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -102 and -118 the pair adds to 104.6%. With it taken out, the Blues are 51.7% and the Canadiens 48.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in our figures. The Canadiens are 6-3-2, 3-1-1 on the road, and won 2-1 at Winnipeg on Sunday 25 October. Jacob Fowler has played six of their games and Jakub Dobes five. The Blues are 5-5-1, 3-1-1 at home, and lost 4-0 to Carolina on Saturday 24 October. Joel Hofer has played eight of their games and Jordan Binnington three.
St. Louis at home, Montreal on the road
The Blues at home scored 2.83 a game and allowed 3.07, a deficit of 0.24. The Canadiens on the road scored 3.56 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.41. Montreal travelled better than St. Louis played at home.
The halves the method leaves out: Montreal at home went 24-15-2, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.10. St. Louis on the road went 17-19-5, a 41.5% win rate, scoring 2.80 and allowing 3.22. The Canadiens won at the same 58.5% rate in both arenas. Neither of these halves is in our number.
The season around it
The two clubs finished 2025-26 far apart. Montreal went 48-24-10 with 106 points and a goal difference of +27, then beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Carolina. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points, a goal difference of -27, and missed the playoffs.
The Canadiens were strong in close games: 23-6-10 in one-goal games, and 14 wins in the 24 that went past regulation. The Blues went 18-9-12 in one-goal games but won only 4 of their 16 past 60 minutes. St. Louis lost by two goals or more in 24 of 82 games.
St. Louis won both meetings in 2025-26. The Blues won 4-3 in Montreal on Sunday 7 December 2025, a game in neither half of our number. They won 2-0 at home on Saturday 3 January 2026, a game inside both halves: the Blues’ home games and the Canadiens’ road games. Two games prove nothing about a 6.6-point gap.
Pick: Canadiens -102
Bet the Canadiens on the moneyline at -102. The gap is 6.6 points toward Montreal, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Canadiens -102 and Blues -118 on 26 October 2026 at 19:25 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -102 and -118, and has not moved.
What kills the bet
A shorter Montreal price. Against the Blues at -118, the Canadiens stay a bet at -117 or longer. At +101 or longer they are a bet whatever St. Louis is priced at.
For the Blues to become the bet, they would have to be +196 or longer against Montreal at -102, or +150 or longer whatever the Canadiens are priced at. They are -118.
The injury list is the other risk, and none of it is in our number. ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026 at 19:24 UTC, lists Nick Suzuki out with an upper-body injury for Montreal, and Sam Montembeault, Ivan Demidov, Bryce Pickford and Lucas Condotta on injured reserve. Montembeault is a goalie. For St. Louis, Ross Johnston, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube, Alexey Toropchenko and Tyler Tucker are on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Blues’ games went over 6.5 in 33 of 82, a 40.2% rate. The Canadiens’ games went over in 44 of 82, a 53.7% rate. St. Louis home games averaged 5.90 goals, Montreal road games 6.71.
Our over chance is 47.0%. With the margin removed, the over is priced at 45.7% and the under at 54.3%, so our number leans over by 1.2 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Blues are -1.5 at +205 and the Canadiens +1.5 at -250, which is 31.5% and 68.5% without the margin. Over 2025-26, St. Louis won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and Montreal lost by two or more in 18 of 82. On those rates, Blues -1.5 lands 22.6% of the time against 31.5% priced, a gap of 8.9 points toward Canadiens +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Canadiens at -102.
Canadiens at Blues, Tuesday 27 October, 8:00 PM ET, Enterprise Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 26 October 2026, 19:25 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026, 19:24 UTC.