NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyNYI+1.5U 5.5+102NSH-1.5O 5.5-122
NHL · Tuesday 27 October
Islanders vs Predators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Islanders at -102. Our number makes them a 50.6% winner in Nashville, 2.3 points off the price, and we need 5.
The Nashville Predators are -118 and the New York Islanders -102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.7% for Nashville and 48.3% for New York. The price calls this game close to even with a slight home edge. Our number also calls it close to even, with the visitors slightly ahead, and that small disagreement is all there is.
How 49.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Predators went 20-17-3 at Bridgestone Arena, a 50.0% home win rate. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate once the three losses after regulation are counted. Average the two and Nashville is 49.4%, New York 50.6%.
The market has Nashville at 51.7%. The gap is 2.3 points toward the Islanders. Our threshold is 5 points, set before the price is read. At 2.3 the gap is below it, and the call is no bet.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -118 and -102 the two prices come to 104.6%. With it taken out, the Predators are 51.7% and the Islanders 48.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Predators are 4-3-4, 3-2-1 at home, and beat Colorado 6-2 at home on Sunday 25 October. Juuse Saros has played eight of their games and Justus Annunen two. The Islanders are 5-4-2, 1-3-1 on the road, and lost 6-3 in Dallas the same Sunday. Ilya Sorokin has played eight of their games and Semyon Varlamov three.
Nashville at home, New York on the road
The halves the method uses are both slightly negative. The Predators at home scored 3.12 a game and allowed 3.27, a deficit of 0.15. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.14. These two halves are nearly the same size, which is why the method lands near 50%.
The halves left out point the same way. Nashville on the road went 17-16-7, a 42.5% win rate, scoring 3.00 and allowing 3.33. New York at home went 22-17-2, a 53.7% win rate, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.98. Neither half is in our number.
Over the full season the Islanders finished 43-34-5 with 91 points and a goal difference of -8. The Predators went 38-34-10 with 86 points and were outscored by 22. Both teams missed the playoffs.
New York was the better team in close games. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. Nashville went 20-8-10 in one-goal games and won 10 of its 20 past 60 minutes. The Predators lost by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games; the Islanders in 23 of 82.
Nashville won both meetings in 2025-26. The 2-1 shootout win on 8 January 2026 was played in Nashville, so it sits in both halves of our number. The 4-3 Predators win on 31 January 2026 was played in the Islanders’ arena and is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.3 points toward the Islanders against a threshold of 5. Neither price is wrong by enough to stake.
The line read Predators -118 and Islanders -102 on 26 October 2026 at 15:35 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -118 and -102, and has not moved.
What kills the bet
A longer price on either side would create one. The Islanders become a bet at +120 or longer, whatever Nashville is priced at. They are -102.
For the Predators, the figure is +125 or longer whatever the Islanders are priced at, and +148 or longer with the Islanders held at -102. They are -118. Both are a long way from here.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list, read from the game page on 26 October 2026, has Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov on injured reserve with knee injuries for New York, and Calum Ritchie and Matias Maccelli out with lower-body injuries. Nashville lists no one. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Predators’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, a 53.7% rate; the Islanders’ in 41 of 82, 50.0%. Nashville’s home games averaged 6.39 goals, New York’s road games 5.66.
Averaged, our number has the over at 51.8%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%, a lean to the under of 1.4 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Nashville is -1.5 at +200 and New York +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. The Predators won by two goals or more in 18 of 82 games, and the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Predators -1.5 lands 25.0% of the time against 31.9% priced, a gap of 6.9 points toward Islanders +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side as the moneyline gap and never a bet. No bet on this game.
Islanders at Predators, Tuesday 27 October, 8:00 PM ET, Bridgestone Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 26 October 2026, 15:35 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026.