NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyLA+1.5U 5.5+120NYR-1.5O 5.5-142
NHL · Monday 26 October
Kings vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Kings on the moneyline. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number is run on the Rangers‘ home games without him, and it makes Los Angeles a 61.1% winner at Madison Square Garden.
The Los Angeles Kings are +120 and the New York Rangers -142 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 43.7% for Los Angeles and 56.3% for New York. The price makes the home team the favourite. Our number reverses it, and the gap is 17.4 points.
How 61.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury. That comes from the ESPN injury list in the game summary, in an entry dated 11 October 2026, with 15 September 2027 given as his return date, read 25 October 2026, 19:02 UTC. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of New York’s 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick with 25, Spencer Martin with 6 and Dylan Garand with 3. He played 26 of the 41 home games the method reads.
In the 15 home games he missed, the Rangers went 4-9-2, a 26.67% home win rate. Our NHL minimum is 10 games at that venue without the goalie, and 15 clears it. The Kings went 20-10-11 on the road, a 51.2% road loss rate. Average the two and the Rangers are 38.9% and the Kings 61.1%. Against the price, that is 17.4 points in Los Angeles’ favour.
The full home season gives the same side. New York went 14-20-7 at home, a 34.1% win rate. On that figure the Rangers are 42.7%, and the gap is 13.6 points toward the Kings. Removing Shesterkin makes the Rangers weaker at home and widens the gap.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +120 and -142 they come to 104.1%. With that taken out, the Kings are 43.7% and the Rangers 56.3%.
This season so far
Every input above is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and at home it has gone well for New York. The Rangers are 7-5-1 overall and 6-0-0 at home, though they lost 7-4 in Ottawa on Saturday. Garand has played nine of their games, Shesterkin five and Martin one.
The Kings are 2-5-2, and 2-2-2 on the road. They lost 3-1 in New Jersey on Saturday. Darcy Kuemper has started six of their games and Anton Forsberg four. A perfect home start is the strongest thing against this pick, and our number does not see it.
New York at home, Los Angeles on the road
Last season the Rangers at home scored 2.59 a game and allowed 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Kings on the road scored 2.85 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.05. Neither half is good. The Rangers’ half is worse.
The halves the method leaves out run the other way. New York on the road went 19-19-2, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 3.12. Los Angeles at home went 15-17-9, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.63 and allowing 3.12. Both teams played better away from their own arena, and neither of those halves is in our number.
The season around it
The Kings finished 35-27-20 with 90 points, despite a goal difference of -22. They were swept 0-4 by Colorado in the first round. The Rangers went 34-39-9 with 77 points, a goal difference of -12, and missed the playoffs.
Close games account for the Kings’ points. They went 21-6-20 in one-goal games, and 33 of their games went past regulation, of which they won 13. The Rangers went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of their 18 past 60 minutes. New York lost by two goals or more in 27 of 82. Los Angeles did so in 21 of 82.
Los Angeles won both meetings last season. The Kings won 4-3 at home on Tuesday 20 January 2026, a game that is in neither half of our number. They won 4-1 in New York on Monday 16 March 2026. That result is in the Rangers’ full-season home rate and in the Kings’ road rate.
Pick: Kings +120
Bet the Kings on the moneyline at +120. The gap is 17.4 points toward Los Angeles on New York’s home games without Shesterkin, against a threshold of 5. On the full home season it is 13.6.
The line read Kings +120 and Rangers -142 on 25 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Kings +114 and Rangers -135. Since opening, the market has moved toward the Rangers. It gave them 55.1% at the open and gives them 56.3% now.
What kills the bet
A shorter Kings price would kill it. At -128 or longer, the Kings are a bet whatever New York is priced at. Against the Rangers at -142, they stay a bet down to -302.
For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to be +195 or longer whatever the Kings’ price. Against the Kings at +120, they would need +329. They are -142.
The rest happens on the ice. Besides Shesterkin, ESPN’s list has a second Rangers goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, on injured reserve (lower body), along with Joe Veleno, Aidan Thompson and Adam Sykora. For Los Angeles, Quinton Byfield is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Kevin Fiala, Alex Turcotte, Jakub Dvorak and Jan Jenik are on injured reserve. Only Shesterkin changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, with the over at -125 and the under at +105. Both teams’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82, or 47.6%. The Rangers’ home games averaged 5.61 goals, and the Kings’ road games averaged 5.75.
With the margin removed, the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%. Our 47.6% for the over leaves a lean of 5.7 points to the under. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so pass on the total.
On the puck line, New York is -1.5 at +190 and Los Angeles +1.5 at -230. That is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. The Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Kings lost by two or more in 21 of 82. Our number has Rangers -1.5 landing 26.8% of the time, a gap of 6.3 points toward Kings +1.5. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Kings at +120.
Kings at Rangers, Monday 26 October, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 25 October 2026, 19:02 UTC. Results and goalie appearances: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs, box scores of all 82 Rangers games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie games this season: ESPN’s game page, read 25 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.