Canadiens vs Jets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Canadiens to win in Winnipeg. Our number puts Montreal 5.0 points above the price, exactly the edge we require.

The Montreal Canadiens are -115 and the Winnipeg Jets -105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.1% for Montreal and 48.9% for Winnipeg. The price calls this close to a coin flip with the visitors a fraction ahead. Our number has Montreal at 56.1%.

How 56.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

The Jets went 19-16-6 at home, a 46.3% home win rate. The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Winnipeg is 43.9%, Montreal 56.1%.

That is 5.0 points better for Montreal than the price. Our threshold for a bet is 5 points. The gap meets it with nothing to spare.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 they come to 104.7%. Taken out, the Canadiens are 51.1% and the Jets 48.9%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in our number. The Jets are 4-3-3, 2-2-1 at home, and lost 3-2 in overtime at Dallas on Thursday 22 October. Stuart Skinner has played seven of their games, Nico Daws four and Clay Stevenson three. The Canadiens are 5-3-2, 2-1-1 on the road, and won 4-1 at Chicago on Friday 23 October. Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler have played five games each.

Winnipeg at home, Montreal on the road

At home last season the Jets scored 3.02 a game and allowed 3.10, a deficit of 0.08. On the road the Canadiens scored 3.56 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.41. Both halves the method uses point the same way.

The halves left out: Winnipeg on the road went 16-19-6, a 39.0% win rate, scoring 2.61 and allowing 3.24. Montreal at home went 24-15-2, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.10. Montreal won 58.5% of its games in both venues. Winnipeg’s road half was its weakest, and none of it is in our number.

The season around it

Montreal finished 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 27. In the playoffs the Canadiens beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3, then lost 4-1 to Carolina. Winnipeg finished 35-35-12 with 82 points, was outscored by 29, and missed the playoffs.

The Canadiens went 23-6-10 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Jets went 16-12-12 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 19 past 60 minutes. Montreal won by two goals or more 25 times in 82 games; Winnipeg did it 19 times and lost by two or more 23 times.

Montreal won both meetings in 2025-26. The 3-2 shootout win on 3 December 2025 was in Montreal, so it sits in neither half of our number. The 5-1 win on 4 February 2026 was in Winnipeg and sits in both.

Pick: Canadiens -115

Bet the Canadiens on the moneyline at -115. The gap is 5.0 points toward Montreal against a threshold of 5.

The line read Canadiens -115 and Jets -105 on 24 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -115 and -105.

What kills the bet

Any shorter Montreal price. Against the Jets at -105, the Canadiens are a bet at -115 or longer, so -115 is the break point. At -104 or longer they are a bet whatever Winnipeg is priced at.

For the Jets to become the bet, they would have to be +157 or longer whatever Montreal’s price, or +194 or longer against Montreal at -115. They are -105.

The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Nick Suzuki out with an upper-body injury, and Sam Montembeault, Ivan Demidov, Florian Xhekaj and Bryce Pickford on injured reserve for Montreal. Winnipeg lists Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nick Bjugstad and Garrett Brown on injured reserve, and Nino Niederreiter day-to-day with an upper-body injury. None of these changes our number. With the gap sitting exactly on the threshold, check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Jets’ games went over 5.5 in 47 of 82, the Canadiens’ in 53 of 82. Winnipeg’s home games averaged 6.12 goals and Montreal’s road games 6.71.

That is 57.3% and 64.6%, an average of 61.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%, so our number leans to the over by 6.7 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. That makes the over a lean, never a second bet.

On the puck line, Montreal is -1.5 at +200 and Winnipeg +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. Last season the Canadiens won by two or more in 25 of 82 games and the Jets lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Canadiens -1.5 lands 29.3% of the time against 31.9% priced, a gap of 2.7 points. That is under the threshold, so pass on the puck line. One bet on this game: the Canadiens at -115.

Canadiens at Jets, Sunday 25 October, 7:00 PM ET, Princess Auto Stadium. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.