NHL
NHL · Sunday 25 October
Islanders vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Islanders at +164. Our number makes New York a 43.9% winner in Dallas, against the 36.3% in the price.
The New York Islanders are +164 and the Dallas Stars -198 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 36.3% for New York and 63.7% for Dallas. Our number has the Stars at 56.1%. The 7.6-point gap toward the Islanders is the argument.
How 43.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and Dallas is 56.1%, New York 43.9%. That is 7.6 points better for the Islanders than the price, against a threshold of 5.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +164 and -198 the two prices come to 104.3%. With it removed, the Islanders are 36.3% and the Stars 63.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Stars are 6-3-1, 3-2-0 at home, and beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-2 in overtime on Thursday 22 October. Jake Oettinger has played eight of their games and Casey DeSmith two. The Islanders are 5-3-2, 1-2-1 on the road, and lost 3-2 in overtime to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday 22 October. Ilya Sorokin has played seven of their games and Semyon Varlamov three.
Dallas at home, New York on the road
The Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.14. Those are the two halves in our number.
The halves the method leaves out: Dallas on the road went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78. New York at home went 22-17-2, 53.7%, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.98. The Stars were slightly better away from home than in their own arena, and that half is not in the figure.
Over the full season the gap between these teams is wide. Dallas went 50-20-12 with 112 points, a goal difference of +53, and went out of the playoffs 2-4 in a series against the Minnesota Wild. The Islanders went 43-34-5 with 91 points, a goal difference of -8, and missed the playoffs.
Both teams lived in close games. Dallas went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past 60 minutes. New York went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of its 19 past regulation. The Islanders lost by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games; the Stars won by two or more in 22 of 82.
The Islanders won both meetings in 2025-26 by one goal. The first, 3-2 in Dallas on Tuesday 18 November 2025, is inside both halves of our number. The second, 2-1 at the Islanders’ home on Thursday 26 March 2026, is in neither. Two games prove nothing on their own.
Pick: Islanders +164
Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +164. The gap is 7.6 points toward New York, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Islanders +164 and Stars -198 on 24 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +170 and -205. Since the open, the market gives the Islanders 0.8 points more.
What kills the bet
A shorter Islanders price. At +157 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever Dallas is priced at. Against the Stars at -198, they stay a bet down to +136.
For the Stars to become the bet, they would have to be -104 or longer whatever the Islanders price. Against the Islanders at +164, Dallas would need +153 or longer. They are -198.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list (game page, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC) has Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov on injured reserve for New York with knee injuries, and Calum Ritchie and Matias Maccelli out with lower-body injuries. Dallas lists Oskar Back, Esa Lindell and Matt Duchene on injured reserve, Sam Steel out and Radek Faksa day-to-day. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -105 and under -115. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Islanders’ in 41 of 82. Dallas home games averaged 6.02 goals, New York road games 5.66.
That is 53.7% and 50.0%, an average of 51.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, so our number leans to the over by 2.9 points. That is under the threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at +130 and New York +1.5 at -155, which is 41.7% and 58.3% without the margin. The Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 41.7% priced, a gap of 14.3 points toward Islanders +1.5 at -155. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Islanders at +164.
Islanders at Stars, Sunday 25 October, 6:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.