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Maple Leafs vs Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tyler WilliamsUpdated 25 Oct 2026

Bet the Flames on the moneyline. Our number makes Calgary a 61.0% winner at home, and the price says 40.7%.

The Calgary Flames are +136 and the Toronto Maple Leafs -162 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 40.7% for Calgary and 59.3% for Toronto. The market has the visitors as clear favourites. Our number has the home side clearly ahead, and the gap is 20.3 points.

How 61.0% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

The Flames went 23-13-5 at Scotiabank Saddledome, a 56.1% home win rate. The Maple Leafs went 14-21-6 on the road, a 65.9% road loss rate. The average of 56.1% and 65.9% puts the Flames at 61.0% and the Leafs at 39.0%. That is 20.3 points better for Calgary than the price.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +136 and -162 they come to 104.2%. With the margin taken out, Calgary is 40.7% and Toronto 59.3%.

Our number gives Flames 61 percent, the market 40.7 percentMaple Leafs at Flames: chance to win, ours against the market'sOur numberlast season, home and roadMaple Leafs 39%Flames 61%The marketmoneyline, margin removedMaple Leafs 59.3%Flames 40.7%Moneylines: Maple Leafs -162, Flames +136. A side is a bet when the two differ by 5 points or more.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 25 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-25 19:02 UTC.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and so far it has favoured Toronto. The Leafs are 7-4-2, 3-1-1 on the road, and won 7-2 at Edmonton on Saturday 24 October. Sergei Bobrovsky has played eight of their games and Anthony Stolarz five. The Flames are 4-6-0 and 3-3-0 at home. They beat Detroit 4-1 at home on Saturday, with Devin Cooley and Dustin Wolf at five games each in goal.

Calgary at home, Toronto on the road

Over the full season the Flames at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.61, a surplus of 0.32. The Leafs on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.76, a deficit of 0.88. Those are the two halves the method uses. They point the same way.

Flames at home and Maple Leafs on the road in 2025-262025-26: Flames at home against Maple Leafs on the roadGoals scored per gameFlames at home 2.93Maple Leafs on the road 2.88Goals allowed per gameFlames at home 2.61Maple Leafs on the road 3.76RecordFlames at home 23-13-5Maple Leafs on the road 14-21-6Flames: 41 home games. Maple Leafs: 41 road games. Neutral-site games are left out.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 25 October 2026.

The halves the method leaves out: Calgary on the road went 11-26-4, a 26.8% win rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71. Toronto at home went 18-15-8, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.29 and allowing 3.54. The Flames were a far weaker team away from the Saddledome. That half is not in our number, and on Monday they are at home.

The season around it

The two teams’ full seasons look alike. Calgary went 34-39-9 with 77 points and a goal difference of -47 in the Western Conference. Toronto went 32-36-14 with 78 points and a goal difference of -46 in the Eastern Conference. Both missed the playoffs.

2025-26 goal margin in every game, Flames and Maple Leafs2025-26 regular season: goal margin in every gameFlames34-39-9-0.57 goals a gameMaple Leafs32-36-14-0.56 goals a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, first game on the left. A shootout counts as one goal.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 25 October 2026. Record is wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses.

Close games split them more. Toronto went 14-4-14 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 23 that went past regulation. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Leafs lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games, the Flames in 33.

Toronto won both meetings in 2025-26. The first was 4-3 in Toronto on Tuesday 28 October 2025, which sits in neither half of our number. The second was 4-2 in Calgary on Monday 2 February 2026, and that game is in both halves: a Flames home loss and a Leafs road win.

Pick: Flames +136

Bet the Flames on the moneyline at +136. The gap is 20.3 points toward Calgary, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Flames +136 and Maple Leafs -162 on 25 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Flames +114 and Leafs -135. Since the open the market has moved toward Toronto, from 55.1% to 59.3%, a shift of 4.2 points. Calgary’s price has lengthened, and our number has not changed.

What kills the bet

A shorter Calgary price. At -127 or longer the Flames are a bet whatever Toronto is priced at. Against Toronto at -162, they stay a bet down to -372.

For the Maple Leafs to become the bet, they would have to be +194 or longer whatever Calgary’s price, or +358 or longer against Calgary at +136. They are -162.

Then there is the ice. Toronto’s 7-4-2 start is not in our number. ESPN’s injury list has John Tavares, Dakota Joshua, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai on injured reserve for Toronto. Calgary lists Mikael Backlund as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, with Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -125 and under +105. The Flames’ games went over 6.5 in 29 of 82, a 35.4% rate. The Leafs’ games went over in 46 of 82, or 56.1%. Calgary’s home games averaged 5.54 goals and Toronto’s road games 6.64.

2025-26 game totals for Flames and Maple Leafs2025-26: total goals in every game, against this game's 6.5012345678910111213146.5Flamesover 6.5 in 29 of 82Maple Leafsover 6.5 in 46 of 82Each dot is one 2025-26 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 25 October 2026. A shootout winner counts as one goal. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-25 19:02 UTC.

Averaged, our over is 45.7%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%, so our number leans to the under by 7.5 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. The under is a lean, not a bet.

On the puck line, Toronto is -1.5 at +150 and Calgary +1.5 at -180, which is 38.4% and 61.6% without the margin. Over the full season the Leafs won by two goals or more in 18 of 82 games, and the Flames lost by two or more in 33 of 82. On those rates Leafs -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time against 38.4% priced. That is a gap of 7.3 points toward Flames +1.5, a lean on the same side as the pick. One bet on this game: the Flames at +136.

Maple Leafs at Flames, Monday 26 October, 8:30 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 25 October 2026, 19:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 25 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.