NHL
NHL · Tuesday 27 October
Kings vs Blackhawks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Kings at -122. Our number has Los Angeles 4.7 points better than the price, short of the 5 points we need to bet.
The Los Angeles Kings are -122 and the Chicago Blackhawks +102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 52.6% for Los Angeles and 47.4% for Chicago. Our number is 57.3% for the Kings at United Center. The gap is real but small, and it sits under the line we set before any game is priced.
How 57.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Blackhawks went 14-19-8 at home, a 34.1% win rate. The Kings went 20-10-11 on the road, a 51.2% road loss rate. Averaged, Chicago is 42.7% and Los Angeles 57.3%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At +102 and -122 they come to 104.5%. Taken out, the Blackhawks are 47.4% and the Kings 52.6%. Ours is 57.3% for Los Angeles, a gap of 4.7 points toward the Kings.
A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. This one differs by 4.7. That is the whole verdict.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is outside the method. Both teams have started poorly. Chicago is 3-8-0, 3-4-0 at home, and lost 3-2 to the Florida Panthers on Sunday 25 October. Spencer Knight has played nine of their games and Arvid Soderblom two. Los Angeles is 2-5-2, 2-2-2 on the road, and lost 3-1 at New Jersey on Saturday 24 October. Darcy Kuemper has played six of their games and Anton Forsberg four.
Chicago at home, Los Angeles on the road
The Blackhawks at home scored 2.61 a game and allowed 3.29, a deficit of 0.68. The Kings on the road scored 2.85 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.05. Those are the two halves the method uses.
The halves it leaves out: Chicago on the road went 15-20-6, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.41. Los Angeles at home went 15-17-9, also 36.6%, scoring 2.63 and allowing 3.12. The Kings were the better team away from their own arena last season. The road half is the one in our number.
The season around it
The Kings went 35-27-20 with 90 points and a goal difference of -22, then lost 4-0 in a series to the Colorado Avalanche. The Blackhawks went 29-39-14 with 72 points, were outscored by 62, and missed the playoffs. Chicago scored 2.60 a game and allowed 3.35; Los Angeles scored 2.74 and allowed 3.01.
Los Angeles played a lot of close hockey. The Kings went 21-6-20 in one-goal games, and 33 of their games went past regulation, of which they won 13. They won by two goals or more 14 times in 82 and lost by two or more 21 times. Chicago went 13-8-14 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 21 past 60 minutes. The Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82.
Los Angeles won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. The Kings won 3-1 in Chicago on Sunday 26 October 2025, and that game is inside both halves of our number. The other two were in Los Angeles: a 2-1 Blackhawks win on Thursday 4 December and a 6-0 Kings win on Saturday 6 December. Neither is in our number.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 4.7 points toward the Kings against a threshold of 5.
The line read Kings -122 and Blackhawks +102 on 27 October 2026 at 01:04 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Kings -118 and Blackhawks -102. Since the open the market has moved toward Los Angeles: it gives the Kings 52.6% now against 51.7% at the open, 0.9 points more. That move is what took the price this close to our number.
What kills the bet
Here the question runs the other way: what makes a bet appear. The Kings are a bet at -109 or longer whatever Chicago is priced at. Against the Blackhawks at +102, they become a bet at -119 or longer. They are -122. A move of three cents toward Chicago turns this into a Kings bet.
For the Blackhawks to become the bet, they would have to be +165 or longer whatever the Kings price; against the Kings at -122, +201 or longer. They are +102.
ESPN’s injury list has Bowen Byram day-to-day with an upper-body injury for Chicago. For Los Angeles it has Mats Zuccarello, Alex Turcotte, Jakub Dvorak, Jan Jenik and Kevin Fiala on injured reserve. Neither list carries a goalie, and none of these absences changes the method. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Blackhawks’ games went over 5.5 in 42 of 82, a 51.2% rate. The Kings’ games went over in 39 of 82, 47.6%. Chicago’s home games averaged 5.9 goals, Los Angeles’s road games 5.75.
Averaged, the over lands 49.4% of the time. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%. That is a 4.9-point lean to the under, under the 5-point threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Kings are -1.5 at +200 and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. Over the full season the Kings won by two goals or more in 14 of 82 and the Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Kings -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 31.9% priced, a gap of 4.5 points toward Blackhawks +1.5. It is below the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game at these prices.
Kings at Blackhawks, Tuesday 27 October, 8:00 PM ET, United Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC.