NHL
NHL · Tuesday 27 October
Devils vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Stars at -125. Our number makes Dallas a 56.1% winner at home against the price’s 53.2%, a gap of 2.9 points, short of the 5 we need.
The Dallas Stars are -125 and the New Jersey Devils +105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 53.2% for Dallas and 46.8% for New Jersey. Our figure is 56.1% for the Stars. The price is close enough to ours that it is fair.
How 56.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate. The Devils went 21-20-0 away from home, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and Dallas is 56.1%, New Jersey 43.9%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Stars are 53.2% and the Devils 46.8%. Against our 56.1%, the gap is 2.9 points toward Dallas. A side is a bet when ours and the market’s differ by at least 5 points, so this one is not.
The price has also moved. It opened at Stars -142 and Devils +120, which gave Dallas 56.3% with the margin out. Since opening, the market has given the Devils 3.1 points more. That move took the price further from a bet on New Jersey, not closer to one.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Stars are 7-3-1, 4-2-0 at home, and beat the New York Islanders 6-3 on Sunday 25 October. Jake Oettinger has played nine of their games and Casey DeSmith two. The Devils are 7-4-0, 1-2-0 on the road, and beat the Los Angeles Kings 3-1 on Saturday 24 October. Jake Allen has played seven of their games.
Dallas at home, New Jersey on the road
The Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17, a deficit of 0.51. Those are the two halves inside our number.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way for Dallas. On the road the Stars went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78, a surplus of 0.73. The Devils at home went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 2.95 and allowing 3.02. New Jersey’s win rate was 51.2% at home and 51.2% away. Its goal margin was worse on the road.
The season around it
Dallas finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and a goal difference of +53, scoring 3.4 a game and allowing 2.76. The Stars made the playoffs and went out to the Minnesota Wild in a series that ended 2-4. New Jersey finished 42-37-3 with 87 points and a goal difference of -24, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.1, and missed the playoffs.
Close games split differently. The Stars went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Devils went 20-8-3 in one-goal games and won 13 of their 16 past 60 minutes. New Jersey lost by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games. Dallas won by two or more in 22 of 82.
The teams met twice in 2025-26. Dallas won 3-0 in New Jersey on Wednesday 3 December 2025. That game is in neither half of our number. The Devils won 6-4 in Dallas on Tuesday 24 March 2026, and that one is inside both halves: a Stars home loss and a Devils road win.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 2.9 points toward the Stars against a threshold of 5. That gap is a lean. It is not a bet.
The line read Stars -125 and Devils +105 on 27 October 2026 at 01:04 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -142 and +120.
What kills the bet
Here, “kills the bet” means what would create one. The Stars become a bet at -104 or longer, whatever New Jersey is priced at. They are -125, so Dallas needs to drift 21 cents for the gap to reach 5 points.
For the Devils to become the bet, they would have to be +157 or longer whatever the Dallas price, or +183 or longer against the Stars at -125. They are +105. Our number does not get there from where the market sits.
ESPN’s injury list has Connor Hellebuyck out for New Jersey, not injury related, and Seamus Casey on injured reserve with a knee injury. For Dallas it lists Radek Faksa day-to-day with a lower-body injury and Sam Steel day-to-day, undisclosed. Oskar Back (finger), Esa Lindell (lower body) and Matt Duchene (abdomen) are on injured reserve. None of these absences changes the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -118 and under -102. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, a 53.7% rate. The Devils’ games went over in 40 of 82, 48.8%. Dallas’s home games averaged 6.02 goals and New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
Those two rates average to 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.7% and the under at 48.3%, so our number leans to the under by 0.5 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at +200 and New Jersey +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. Over 2025-26 the Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Devils lost by two or more in 29 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time against 31.9% priced, a gap of 0.8 points toward Devils +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean at most. On the moneyline the gap is 2.9 points, and the call is no bet.
Devils at Stars, Tuesday 27 October, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC.