NHL
NHL · Tuesday 27 October
Sabres vs Sharks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. With Alex Lyon out, our number has the Sharks at 45.2% to win at home, the price has them at 43.7%, and a bet needs a gap of 5 points.
The Buffalo Sabres are -142 and the San Jose Sharks +120 at DraftKings for Tuesday’s game at SAP Center at San Jose. With the margin out, that is 56.3% for Buffalo and 43.7% for San Jose. Our prediction for Buffalo at San Jose lands close to that: Sharks 45.2%, Sabres 54.8%.
How 45.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
Lyon is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury (ESPN injury list, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC; listed since 15 October, with 31 October given as his return date). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Lyon appeared in 36 of Buffalo’s 82 games last season, more than Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s 35 and Colten Ellis’s 16, and in 18 of the 41 road games the method reads. In the 23 road games he did not play, the Sabres went 14-7-2, a 39.13% road loss rate. Our minimum for a goalie re-run is 10 games, so 23 is enough to use.
The Sharks went 21-14-6 at home, a 51.2% home win rate. Average 51.2% with 39.13% and the Sharks are 45.2%, the Sabres 54.8%. That is 1.5 points better for San Jose than the price.
The full road season points the same way, a little further. The Sabres went 24-13-4 away from home, a 41.5% road loss rate; on that number San Jose is 46.3% and the gap is 2.6 points. Without Lyon, Buffalo lost less often on the road (39.13% against 41.5%), so the re-run narrows the gap.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -142 and +120 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Sabres are 56.3% and the Sharks 43.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Sharks are 6-5-1, 2-2-0 at home, and lost 6-4 in Boston on Saturday 24 October. Yaroslav Askarov has played seven of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic five. The Sabres are 4-4-3, 1-1-3 on the road, and lost 4-3 in overtime in Washington the same night. Luukkonen has played nine of their games and Ellis three.
San Jose at home, Buffalo on the road
The Sharks at home scored 3.07 a game and allowed 3.46 over 2025-26, a deficit of 0.39. The Sabres on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 2.98, a surplus of 0.41. On goals, the visitor was the stronger half by a distance.
The halves the method leaves out: San Jose on the road went 18-21-2, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.05 and allowing 3.66. Buffalo at home went 26-10-5, 63.4%, scoring 3.63 and allowing 2.90. Neither half is in our number.
Over the full season the Sabres went 50-23-9 with 109 points and outscored opponents by 47. They beat Boston 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs, then lost to Montreal in seven games. The Sharks went 39-35-8 with 86 points, were outscored by 41, and missed the playoffs.
San Jose kept close games close. The Sharks went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 20 that went past regulation. Buffalo went 15-3-9 in one-goal games and won 8 of its 17 past 60 minutes. The Sharks lost by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games; the Sabres won by two or more in 35 of 82.
Buffalo won both games between these teams in 2025-26. The Sabres won 6-3 at home on 10 March, a game in neither half of our number. They won 5-0 in San Jose on 19 March, a game inside both halves of the full-season number.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.5 points toward San Jose on Buffalo’s road games without Lyon, against a threshold of 5, and 2.6 on the full road season. Neither is close. At +120 the Sharks are priced within 1.5 points of what their home record and Buffalo’s road record say, and that is a price we accept.
The line read Sabres -142 and Sharks +120 on 27 October 2026 at 01:04 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -135 and +114. At the open the market had San Jose at 44.9%; since then it has moved 1.2 points toward Buffalo.
What kills the bet
This is a pass, so the question is what would make it a bet. The Sharks become one at +149 or longer whatever Buffalo is priced at; against Buffalo at -142, they need +153 or longer. They are +120.
For the Sabres to become the bet, they would have to be +101 or longer. They are -142.
The rest is on the ice. Besides Lyon, ESPN’s injury list has Jiri Kulich out with a concussion, Justin Danforth day-to-day, and Sam Carrick and Matt Grzelcyk on injured reserve for Buffalo. San Jose lists Igor Chernyshov and Alexander Wennberg as out, and Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser on injured reserve. None of those changes the method. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -122 and under +102. The Sharks’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, the Sabres’ in 38 of 82. San Jose’s home games averaged 6.53 goals, Buffalo’s road games 6.37.
That is 51.2% and 46.3%, an average of 48.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.6% and the under at 47.4%, so our number leans to the under by 3.8 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Buffalo is -1.5 at +170 and San Jose +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. Over the full season the Sabres won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Sabres -1.5 lands 39.6% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 4.1 points. It points the other way from the moneyline gap, sits under 5, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Sabres at Sharks, Tuesday 27 October, 10:30 PM ET, SAP Center at San Jose. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Buffalo’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 01:04 UTC.