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Lightning vs Mammoth Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tyler WilliamsUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Bet the Lightning at +120. Our number makes Tampa Bay a 52.4% winner at the Delta Center, and the price gives them 43.7%.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are +120 and the Utah Mammoth -142 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 43.7% for Tampa Bay and 56.3% for Utah. The price makes the home team the favourite. Our Lightning vs Mammoth prediction has it the other way, with the visitors slightly ahead.

How 52.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.

The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at home, a 53.7% home win rate. The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Utah is 47.6%, Tampa Bay 52.4%. Against the price, that is 8.7 points better for the Lightning.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +120 and -142 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Lightning are 43.7% and the Mammoth 56.3%.

Our number gives Mammoth 47.6 percent, the market 56.3 percentLightning at Mammoth: chance to win, ours against the market'sOur numberlast season, home and roadLightning 52.4%Mammoth 47.6%The marketmoneyline, margin removedLightning 43.7%Mammoth 56.3%Moneylines: Lightning +120, Mammoth -142. A side is a bet when the two differ by 5 points or more.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:40 UTC.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. Utah is 7-4-0, 3-1-0 at home, and lost 5-3 at Seattle on Thursday 22 October. Karel Vejmelka has played nine of their games and Sebastian Cossa four. Tampa Bay is 7-2-0, 2-2-0 on the road, and beat Vegas 6-2 on the road on Tuesday 20 October. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played seven of their games and Dennis Hildeby two.

Utah at home, Tampa Bay on the road

At home last season the Mammoth scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.02, a surplus of 0.32. On the road the Lightning scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.90. That road surplus is the larger of the two halves our number uses, by a wide distance.

Mammoth at home and Lightning on the road in 2025-262025-26: Mammoth at home against Lightning on the roadGoals scored per gameMammoth at home 3.34Lightning on the road 3.73Goals allowed per gameMammoth at home 3.02Lightning on the road 2.83RecordMammoth at home 22-16-3Lightning on the road 24-12-5Mammoth: 41 home games. Lightning: 41 road games. Neutral-site games are left out.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026.

The halves the method leaves out: Utah on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.20 and allowing 2.83. Tampa Bay at home went 25-14-1, 62.5%, scoring 3.27 and allowing 2.75. Neither half is in our number. The Lightning’s home half is the stronger of the two, so leaving it out does not flatter them.

The season around it

Tampa Bay finished 50-26-6 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 59, then lost a seven-game series 3-4 to Montreal. Utah finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of plus 28, then lost 2-4 to Vegas in the playoffs.

2025-26 goal margin in every game, Mammoth and Lightning2025-26 regular season: goal margin in every gameMammoth43-33-6+0.34 goals a gameLightning50-26-6+0.72 goals a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, first game on the left. A shootout counts as one goal.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026. Record is wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses.

Close games were close to even between them. Utah went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and Tampa Bay 15-10-6. Each team played 16 games past regulation and won 10 of them. The gap shows up in the margins: the Lightning won by two goals or more 35 times and lost by two or more 16 times; the Mammoth won by two or more 27 times and lost by two or more 22 times.

The Lightning won both meetings in 2025-26. The 4-2 win in Utah on Sunday 2 November 2025 is inside our number, in both halves: a Mammoth home loss and a Lightning road win. The 2-0 Tampa Bay win at home on Monday 26 January 2026 is in neither half.

Pick: Lightning +120

Bet the Lightning on the moneyline at +120. The gap is 8.7 points toward Tampa Bay, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Lightning +120 and Mammoth -142 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Lightning +110 and Mammoth -130. Since the open, the market gives Utah 2.1 points more, 56.3% now against 54.3% at the open. The price has moved away from Tampa Bay, and that has made the bet better.

What kills the bet

A shorter Tampa Bay price. At +111 or longer the Lightning are a bet whatever Utah is priced at. Against Utah at -142, they stay a bet down to -112.

For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +135 or longer. They are -142.

This season’s records are not in our number, and both teams have started well: 7-4-0 for Utah, 7-2-0 for Tampa Bay. ESPN’s injury list has Yanni Gourde on injured reserve with a hip injury for Tampa Bay. Utah lists John Marino as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Michael Carcone (upper body) and Maveric Lamoureux (shoulder) on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -105 and under -115. The Mammoth’s games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82, and so did the Lightning’s: 46.3% each. Utah’s home games averaged 6.36 goals, Tampa Bay’s road games 6.56.

2025-26 game totals for Mammoth and Lightning2025-26: total goals in every game, against this game's 6.50123456789101112131415166.5Mammothover 6.5 in 38 of 82Lightningover 6.5 in 38 of 82Each dot is one 2025-26 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026. A shootout winner counts as one goal. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:40 UTC.

That puts our over at 46.3%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, so our number leans to the under by 2.6 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +164 and Tampa Bay +1.5 at -198, which is 36.3% and 63.7% without the margin. Last season the Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, and the Lightning lost by two or more in 16 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 26.2% of the time against 36.3% priced, a gap of 10.1 points toward Lightning +1.5 at -198. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Lightning at +120.

Lightning at Mammoth, Saturday 24 October, 9:00 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.