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The Rangers won 14 of 41 at home last season. Take the Lightning at -135.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are -135 against the New York Rangers at +114 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 55.1% chance for the Lightning. Our number is 62.2%. The gap is 7.1 points, and the threshold for a bet is 5.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.
The Rangers went 14-20-7 at home last season, which is 14 wins, 20 regulation losses and 7 losses after regulation. That is a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road, so they lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average of 34.1 and 41.5 is 37.8 for the Rangers, and 62.2 for the Lightning.
The market’s figure is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%. Out of -135 and +114, it leaves the Lightning at 55.1% and the Rangers at 44.9%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Rangers and 41 road games for the Lightning. The Rangers play at Boston on 29 September, and that game is not in these figures.
The Rangers at home, the Lightning on the road
At home, the Rangers scored 2.59 goals a game and allowed 3.02. The Lightning on the road scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83. That is 1.14 goals a game more scored by the visitor, and 0.19 fewer allowed.
The Rangers won more away from New York. Their road record was 20-19-2, six more wins than at home. The method uses only the home half, and 34.1% is the lower of the two.
Across the full season the Lightning finished 50-26-6 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 0.72 goals a game. They lost their one playoff series, 4-3 to the Montreal Canadiens. The Rangers finished 34-39-9 with 77 points and were outscored by 0.15 a game, and did not reach the playoffs.
The teams met three times in 2025-26, and the Rangers won two, both in Tampa: 7-3 on 13 November and 4-2 on 15 April. The Lightning won 4-1 at New York on 29 November. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.
The price
The Lightning opened at -142 and the Rangers at +120. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -135 and +114. At the opening prices the gap was 5.9 points. The move toward the Rangers has widened it to 7.1.
Both halves of our number sit above the market’s 55.1% for the Lightning: their 58.5% road win rate, and the 65.9% of home games the Rangers lost.
Pick: Lightning moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning -135. Our number is 62.2%, the market’s is 55.1%, and the 7.1-point gap clears the 5-point threshold.
It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Rangers and 41 on the road for the Lightning, all from last season.
What changes it
The price. With the book’s margin at today’s size, the Lightning at -147 still leave a gap of 5.1 points and the bet stands. At -148 the gap is 4.9, and the call becomes a pass.
The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these two teams played in 2025-26, and nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 1 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, with the over at -125 and the under at +105. The Rangers’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82, and the Lightning’s in 50 of 82. The Rangers’ home games averaged 5.61 goals, the Lightning’s road games 6.56.
Average the two over rates, 47.6% and 61.0%, to get 54.3%, and set that against the over’s 53.2% with the margin removed. That is 1.1 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Lightning -1.5 at +180 and the Rangers +1.5 at -218. The Lightning won by two goals or more in 35 of their 82 games, and the Rangers lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, that is 37.8% against 34.3% priced for Lightning -1.5, a 3.5-point gap. Pass on the puck line.
Lightning at Rangers, Thursday 1 October, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
